College Basketball Picks Nov 11-17

2019 Final Four Betting Analysis

The 2019 NCAA March Madness Tournament is down to the Final Four. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders, No. 2 Michigan State Spartans, No. 5 Auburn Tigers, and the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers. The four teams will pair off this weekend to decide which two will play for the National Championship.

Final Four Betting Analysis

No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers
When: Saturday, April 6 at 6:09 pm ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Virginia -5.5

Final Four Betting Analysis: It hasn’t been pretty, but the Virginia Cavaliers have played well enough in the NCAA Tournament to become one of the last four teams standing. The Cavaliers beat Webber State, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Purdue. But, the only team they covered the spread against was Oklahoma, defeating the Sooners 63-51 as a -10.5 favorite.

UVA struggled against Purdue in the Elite Eight. They needed a last-second shot in regulation to push the game into overtime. There, they outlasted the Boilermakers, sealing the deal after Purdue point-guard Carsen Edwards made an errant pass towards the end of overtime.

By contrast, Auburn hasn’t struggled since the first round when they held off New Mexico State for a 78-77 win. The Tigers turned the switch in their Round of 32 game, dominating Kansas 89-75. They then put a beating on the Midwest Region 1-seed North Carolina Tar Heels 97-80 before forcing overtime against rival Kentucky and beating the Wildcats 77-71.

Auburn beat Kentucky without Chuma Okeke. Can they beat the Virginia Cavaliers with Okeke again watching from the stands? Yes! Auburn’s gotten down the floor faster than any team they’ve faced in the tournament. They’ll get down the floor faster than Virginia as well and either make layups, dunks or get open looks behind the three-point line. The Auburn Tigers continue the roll.

Pick: Auburn Moneyline

No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
When: Saturday, April 6 at 8:49 pm ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Michigan State -2.5

Final Four Betting Analysis: Michigan State upset the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight 68-67 and now take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders as a -2.5 favorite. Michigan State beat Duke by playing solid basketball on both ends of the court. No gimmicks. Just hard, tough, hoops.

The Spartans have played that way since a 3-game losing streak almost derailed their season back in late January. Since Feb. 9, Michigan State is 14-1 on the moneyline and 11-4 against the spread. The Spartans never panic when down and have shown that they can both score, they beat LSU 80-63, or beat a team slowing it down like when they upset Duke.

Although Michigan State’s flexibility gives them a slight edge against Texas Tech, it might not be enough of an edge for the Spartans to get past the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They easily handled Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16 before holding Gonzaga to 69 points in a 75-69 Elite Eight win.

The Red Raiders also start the best player left in the tournament, Jarrett Culver. Texas Tech’s swingman averages 18.9 points, 3.6 assists, and 6.4 rebounds. He can create, or make his own shot while also playing great defense. Although only 6’ 5”, Culver is so talented he can even rise and block shots.

Speaking of defense, although Virginia leads the nation in points allowed, Texas Tech might have the overall best defense in the nation. They held Northern Kentucky to 57 points and Buffalo to 58 in addition to controlling both the Zags and the Wolverines. Texas Tech upsets Michigan State and heads to the

National Championship game on Monday night.

Pick: Texas Tech moneyline