The Elite Eight betting trends favor absolutely no one from a historical measure. It’s a round that has taken the championship hopes of the best teams in the country and eaten them alive. It’s also unkind to the lower seeds at an almost historical clip. This might be one round where you don’t want to know what’s happened in years past.
The average point differential in last year’s tournament was actually quite low. Louisville edge Oregon 77-69, while Duke outlasted Michigan State 71-61. Michigan barely hung on against Kansas in an 87-85 win while Florida railed FGCU 62-50 as the only Cinderella left was sent back with their pumpkins between their legs. That was an average point differential of just +8.0 points for the winning team, and that means that the spread is a great place to attack this line.
This is a harder round to digest from a historical standpoint because it vastly depends on the matchups, but one thing that I love about the Elite Eight betting trends is that it’s a horrifying place to be a number one seed. The top seeds cover the spread 38.7% of the time and have only won 54% of these games straight up. This is an Elite Eight betting trend that percolates down through the other top seeds as well.
The second seed has reached the Elite Eight just 45.5% of the time, and are win straight up just 55% of the time, while they’ve covered in only 50.5% of their games over the past decade. This is usually a time when second seeds get sent packing, and they tend to cover in around 20% of their matchups against lower seeded teams. The third seeds share extremely similar Elite Eight betting trends compared to the second seed. In other words, it’s very hard to trust either of these seeds from a historical vantage point.
If we are lucky enough to see a five seed bust through to the Elite Eight bracket, then pounce all over them because they’re the magic seed in this round. Five seeds are near perfect in Elite Eight betting trends from the past 15 years. The general problem? They hardly ever get there. But when they do, historical Elite Eight betting trends suggest strongly that you fire away.
As for the remaining seeds? It’s a general crapshoot. There aren’t enough metrics to generate any reasonable Elite Eight betting trends for most of the seeds because the sixth and seventh seed haven’t gotten there. The lowest seed to populate the Elite Eight was the 12th, which happened once in 2002 with Missouri. The 10th seed has gotten to the Elite Eight seven times since 1985, but nobody has advanced any further than that in this slot. See why I’ve called it the round of death?
The best thing to do when you get to this point in the tournament is to bet the matchup because Elite Eight betting trends often say that nobody is safe. Well, unless you’re a fifth seed.