If you’re looking for a way to increase the value of the games this weekend, then you’ll have to understand how to approach the Final Four OVER/UNDER total betting line in your own picks. I have the game lines listed next to the favorites in both matchups with the TOTAL in brackets along with a detailed explanation of how to gauge this part of the line. Both games are on Saturday, beginning at 6:09pm EST on CBS.
This particular Final Four over/under betting total is a tough pick because it’s so low. The standard total for college basketball betting is 133.0, and it’s worth noting that the initial over/under was set at 125.0 when this line opened. However, the number itself makes sense when you realize that UConn and Florida went a combined 24-44-1 O/U this season.
Florida is a defensive team first and foremost, and a well coached one at that. They lock the strengths of their opponents in a closet and beg you to beat them where you’re weakest. There’s no missing link on the Gators either; they can shut you down anywhere at any time. It’s part of the reason that they’ve gone 2-5 O/U throughout the post-season.
Looking at where Florida hit the OVER is important when gauging your Final Four total betting picks as well. The Gators slammed through a 139.5 total in their rousing win against UCLA because the Bruins couldn’t stop them. They also crested a harrowingly low total of 120.0 in their opening game against Albany. That’s because Florida can absolutely score points when they need to. The thing is that they don’t have to that often. The point of the story is that the oddsmakers have sniffed out the Gators pretty perfectly when it comes to production. The fact that this NCAA Tournament OVER/UNDER total betting line is so low should tell you something.
UConn has been a much harder study in this aspect. They are a typical UNDER team because they have an underrated perimeter defense, but they’re also not a fast transition team like the Gators. They love to squeeze every second they can out of a possession, and their recent tendency to hit the OVER has had more to do with their scoring than their defense.
I think this will be a slower paced game than people realize. Napier and Scottie Wilbekin will be at each other’s throats in this game, and the long bodies that UConn can dispatch against Florida have learned hard lessons against Louisville. That will pay off dividends in this game. This game projects as a low scoring affair, and while this Final Four OVER/UNDER total betting line is in the mid-twenties I think the oddsmakers are on the right track. That’s why I’m sitting on the UNDER.
Talk about opposites attracting. Kentucky is a physical team that earns tough points on a routine basis. They love to fly up and down the court in transition, while using their speed and size to attack the rim with relentless precision. The Harrison Twins also have a ton of confidence in their long-range shot which has been working well for them. In the tournament thus far, against three very good defensive teams, Kentucky has steamrolled the total betting line in the OVER three consecutive times.
Wisconsin’s attention to defense often makes their matchups an under play. They’ve stayed under the total in three of their last four games. But they can break out running with the best of them, which is something showed while dropping 85 points on Oregon. I would not underestimate Wisconsin’s shooting, nor its ability to create open looks for Kaminsky.
These two teams don’t match up well against each other. Kentucky’s man coverage can be exposed by a disciplined team, and Wisconsin won’t be dumb enough to test Randle and the Wildcats in the post that often. That means that Kentucky will grind out points at the rim often while Wisconsin will rely on their midrange game to generate points. That’s the best way for both teams to attack this game, and leaves the Final Four total betting line wide open for a pick in the OVER with my picks.