Below I’ve broken down my own Final Four picks. Do with the information what you will, whether it’s creating two separate ones on each game or bundling them all together in a non-traditional four teamer.
There’s no way around it – you can’t bet against Florida when they’re out for revenge. The last time the Gators lost was against these same Huskies in a 65-64 heartbreaker thanks to a last minute shot by Shabazz Napier. If you don’t think that will motivate Florida to demolish UConn, then you’re dreaming.
Most Final Four parlay picks will suggest that UConn is the team to beat in terms of the betting line, but I absolutely beg to differ. The Huskies can’t contend with teams that have burly frontcourts mostly because they haven’t had to hone themselves against such teams throughout the year. They were hammered by the size and team defense of Louisville twice in the past month and before you mention the MSU win from Sunday, keep in mind that the Spartans are a perimeter team first and a front court team second.
The conversation for who the best point guard in the country is has turned in to a Shabazz Napier lovefest lately, especially with some of my colleagues. It’s like none of them have seen Scottie Wilbekin play defense or lead a dialed in offence. Wilbekin’s aggressive style of man coverage can mitigate and limit Napier’s offensive production, while Patric Young and the Gators do what they do best by killing smaller teams. Defense will win out in this game and as Florida routinely finds answers to combat the Huskies’ attack, UConn will get buried by the size and toughness of Florida’s big men.
Revenge is a dish best served in Final Four parlay picks as I double down my pleasure here in the UNDER with UConn finding little to no room on the scoreboard.
At some point it needs to be said that Kentucky constantly digging themselves out of holes is going to catch up with them. It has to. I’m not suggesting that the Wildcats have been skidding by the skin of their teeth, but eventually the end-of-game miracles they’ve been banking on will run out of steam. This is still a team built on freshman and eventually experience is going to have its say.
When that happens, Wisconsin will strike. The Badgers are an undersold offensive team and Frank Kaminsky’s ability to drown you from range, which is a skill a multitude of his teammates possess as well, will nullify the effectiveness of Julius Randle on the defensive end. Wisconsin has shown a knack for winning all types of different games from sprints, defensive lockdowns and fist fights. They just overcame an Arizona team that is more gifted than them athletically and absolutely decimated a Baylor team that is far more talented on paper.
I expect the same to happen on Saturday night as Kentucky runs in to the brick wall that is Bo Ryan’s defensive schemes. The Badgers will create a fantastic game plan that will hound the Harrison teams and frustrate the inconsistent Randle, while continuing to break through Kentucky’s effort-dependent man coverage. These Badgers are too disciplined to go down without a fight, and while they’re suspect in the way they match up with Kentucky defensively as well, I think their offence will come to life and throw Kentucky off the tracks.