March Madness South Region Finals Pick – Can Dayton Upset Florida?Josh Bailey
Are you ready to cash in with my winning March Madness South Regional finals pick this Saturday night?
If you are, then you’re in luck!
Not only does this Elite Eight matchup between the upset-minded No. 11 Dayton Flyers (26-10 SU, 20-12 ATS, 17-14 O/U) and top-seeded Florida Gators (35-2 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 11-21-1 O/U), offer up a classic David Vs. Goliath theme, but it is also offering a lot of value for your Sweet Sixteen bets.
Thanks to this expert betting breakdown, you’re going to find out just how realistic a chance the surprising Flyers have of pulling off what would undoubtedly be the biggest tourney upset to date as they look to extend their improbable NCAA Tournament run by shocking Florida – and the rest of the hoops world for that matter.
Why Florida will win the South Regional Final and go to the Final Four?
The Gators will win because…well…they’re the Florida Gators.
This team is absolutely overwhelming defensively as they repeatedly smother their opponents and force them into one bad shot after another. More importantly, the Gators have made even bigger strides at the offensive end of the floor and now seem to have more balance with their shot distribution than they have all season long.
Florida has won a whopping 29 consecutive games while warding off each team’s best shot in the process. In their commanding 79-68 win over UCLA in the regional semis, Florida harassed the high-scoring Bruins into 42.2 percent shooting from the field and a woeful 16.7 percent from beyond the arc.
The Gators also got a team-high 19 points from gifted sophomore shooting guard Michael Frazier II while placing three other players in double figures to cash in for betting backers in their second straight NCAA Tournament contest.
Could the Gators become the 2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions?
Are you nuts?
Of course the Gators can win it all!
Again, this team is absolutely beastly on defense, not to mention the fact that they’re apparently on a Blues Brothers mission from God that will not be denied.
The fact of the matter is that Florida has looked like the best team in all the land for the majority of the season – and has only solidified that opinion with three commanding March Madness spankings.
Can Dayton win the South Regional Final and go to the Final Four?
The Flyers will win this contest because…well, they’ve already upset three big-name opponents and clearly aren’t mortified by their upcoming date against the Gators.
I mean, let’s be real…no one expected the Flyers to beat Ohio State in their opener, a Syracuse team that once looked like the best team in all the land – or a Stanford team that had a clear height advantage and plenty of momentum after beating No. 2 Kansas in the regional quarters.
The Flyers are efficient on offense and have been surprisingly solid defensively in all three of their tourney wins. Most of all, the Flyers will win this contest because they’re lucky. Lest anyone forget, Dayton could have been bounced out in either of their first two games, beating the Buckeyes by just one point and Syracuse by a basket.
Could the Flyers become the 2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions?
If Dayton beats Florida in this regional finals matchup, of course they could – and I suspect a lot of bettors would probably back them in their Final Four contest no matter who they’d potentially play. However, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, the monumental task of getting past the powerful Florida Gators awaits.
And my Sweet Sixteen winning pick is:
It’s a damn shame Dayton had the horrible misfortune of being in the same region as Florida, because they’d stand a much better chance of beating any other remaining team in a regional final.
However, as I wrote earlier, the fact of the matter is that the Florida Gators have a defense that can make even the best offenses in the nation look inept. While Dayton does own a very nice offense that averages more points per game (72.8 ppg) than the Gators, this game, like all of their others, will be decided on how the Flyers handle Florida ‘s suffocating defense, which, I suspect won’t be very good.
Throw in the fact that Dayton doesn’t have a player on its roster that averaged more than 12.5 points per game and it’s kind of easy to see that the Florida Gators will not be denied in their quest to advance to the Final Four.
Dayton has posted a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last seven games while also going 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site contests, but Florida has been almost as good against the spread recently after struggling to cash in for much of the season.
The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their L/9 games and a bankroll-boosting 20-8 ATS in their last 28 NCAA March Madness affairs overall. After watching the Gators dismantle UCLA by double digits, I have no doubt that Dayton is in for more of the same and then some.
Back the determined ‘Blues Brothers’…I mean, Florida Gators to win and cash in – even as a double-digit favorite.