Saint Louis at Virginia Commonwealth Against The Odds Free Pick

Saint Louis at Virginia Commonwealth Against The Odds Free Pick

With Selection Sunday less than a month away can the Saint Louis Billikens play spoiler against No. 25 Virginia Commonwealth Rams? A win by the Rams will give them sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10.

Well, St. Louis is a whopping 17.5 point underdog in today’s tilt against the Rams of Virginia Commonwealth, so an upset is not very likely. But what are the chances of St. Louis covering the spread?

A Closer Look At My Saint Louis at Virginia Commonwealth Against The Odds Free Pick

Matchup: Saint Louis Billikens at (25) Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Date: Feb. 17, 2015 
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET 
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Stadium: Stuart C. Siegel Center
Radio: Saint Louis Vs  Virginia Commonwealth
Point Spread: Virginia Commonwealth Rams -17.5

Saint Louis Will Cover the Spread If

The Billikens defense stays tough versus VCU.

Saint Louis was a 12.5 point home dog against the VCU Rams in the last matchup between these two. Somebody forgot to tell St. Louis because the Billikens only lost by a single bucket, 63 to 61. Saint Louis’ defense was absolutely stunning. While it usually allows 64.8 points per game from 44.5% shooting and 36.4% from behind the arc, the Billikens held VCU to 36.7% shooting from the field, 18 of 49, and 30.4% shooting from behind the arc, 7 out of 23.

Saint Louis is going to have to be just as good defensively in this game versus the Rams. In fact, they might have to be better in order to keep it close since VCU battles the Billikens at home in this matchup. Saint Louis will have to find a way to keep Treveon Graham, VCU’s top offensive threat, from draining threes. Graham hits threes at 41%. If the Billikens can do that, they’ll cover the spread again.

Virginia Commonwealth Will Cover the Spread If

VCU can get second chance points.

St. Louis out rebounded VCU 31 to 27 in the first game. What’s worse is that the Rams only grabbed 4 offensive rebounds. That’s absolutely terrible. That many offensive rebounds are going to make it very difficult for VCU to cover in this game.

First, St. Louis is capable of holding VCU to under their 42% average from the field in this matchup just like they did in the last matchup. Second, St. Louis did a great job at guarding the perimeter versus VCU in the last game. Although Graham scored 21 points, he only made 2 out of 9 from behind the three-point line. Finally, St. Louis was able to expose the Rams’ interior defense. Forward Milik Yarbrough scored 15 points and grabbed 6 boards.

Knowing this, VCU has to raise their offensive rebound number in order to cover the spread. They’re the home team in this matchup, which means that they’re going to be favored by possibly more than 12.5 points. Grab offensive rebounds for second chance points in order to cover ATS.

Final Score Prediction – Virginia Commonwealth Rams 70, Saint Louis Billikens 64