Knowing the Sweet 16 betting trends ahead of March 27th, when the games will be played, is key to getting a handle on how you’re going to spend your money in the near future. Obviously, we don’t know the matchups just yet as the 2014 men’s bracket has yet to be announced and we don’t know which teams are where. So this is more of a historical review than anything else.
Let’s start by revisiting last year’s men’s bracket. Of the eight games, there were only two straight upsets. Twelfth seeded Oregon muscled past overhyped Saint Louis in a 74-57 victory, while the darling’s from Florida Gulf Coast exploded all over San Diego State to earn a 81-71 win themselves. Parlaying a handful of moneylines on favorites seems to be the best outright strategy in this round since the favored team tends to win 88% of the time. Of course nothing is a lock when it comes to the madness, but that’s a very strong Sweet 16 betting trend from the past few years.
As for the spread, it’s a bit of a more difficult study. It’s worth pointing out that one of the prevalent Sweet 16 betting trends that emerged were double digit victories, and not just any normal kind of margin. The average point differential in these games was a blistering +20.9 points for the winning side. That’s just from 2013 so it might have been an anomaly.
Betting the spread in the Sweet 16 is a toss-up, as it should be. In the past nine years, the underdog has covered more on average with a 54% clip but last year they were absolutely crushed. So again, I encourage you to be ready to turn your back on greed and go for the moneyline favorites because the spread is a dangerous mind field in the Sweet 16 leg of the bracket.
That doesn’t mean that teams are slamming the OVER, for those interested in knowing the Sweet Sixteen betting trends regarding the TOTAL. In fact, in this particular round, the UNDER is held 87.5% of the time. A lot of that is understandable since there are some teams that don’t necessarily belong in that round and got there through some serious upsets, while the contenders that survived are better prepared to attack the lines. Frankly, a lot of the lesser teams just run out of steam.
We call it March Madness for a reason, but the Sweet 16 is usually where things start to normalize. People can get caught up in all sorts of momentum plays, Cinderella stories and emotional upswings but the hard nosed fact is that the favorites straight up in the UNDER are the best historical plays. There’s over a decade of recent Sweet 16 betting trends that prove it, so consider yourself better prepared for the second weekend.