Whether you’ve soared since the start of the 2017 NCAA Tournament or you’ve fallen into a hole that you desperately want to dig out of, you’re going to have a chance to cash in with a trio of potentially winning wagers thanks to the trio of expert Sweet 16 upset picks that you’re about to get.
Now, let’s get started.
NCAA Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 Upset Picks
No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oregon
When: Thursday, March 23, 2017 at 7:09 PM ET
Where: Sprint Center, Kansas City, Missouri
Odds: Michigan -1.5
Analysis: Michigan (26-11 SU, 17-17 ATS) didn’t reach the top 25 national rankings all season while Oregon (31-5 SU, 20-15 ATS)was a top 10 ballclub virtually all season long. Still, the Wolverines are now slight 1.5-point favorites to beat the Ducks because of the phenomenal play they’ve shown since just prior to the Big Ten conference tournament.
Michigan has won seven straight and nine of 10 and got past Louisville 73-69 in the last round to cash in as a 3-point underdog and advance to this intriguing matchup. While Oregon has won both of their tourney games and got past Rhode Island 75-72 in their Round of 32 matchup the last time out, the Ducks certainly didn’t look overpowering by any stretch of the imagination. Michigan may be favored in this contest, but it’s still really going to be an upset of epic proportions when the Wolverines win.
Oregon is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an SU win and just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record while Michigan has gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite. Michigan wins and narrowly covers!
NCAA Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 Upset Pick: Michigan 81 Oregon 77
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Kansas
When: Thursday, March 23, 2017 at 9:35 PM ET
Where: Sprint Center, Kansas City, Missouri
Odds: Kansas -3.5
Analysis: Kansas (30-4 SU, 13-18 ATS) may be the No. 1 seed in their region, but the Jayhawks look like they’re going to be in trouble against streaking Purdue (27-7 SU, 19-10 ATS) in their Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday.
I know Kansas manhandled both, UC-Davis and Michigan State in their two tournament matchups so far, but Purdue has looked much better in their two wins against far more quality opponents in Nevada and red-hot Iowa State.
The Boilermakers have a dangerous offense that averages just 3.1 fewer points per game than the Jayhawks, but a defense that gives up 4.5 fewer points per game defensively. Purdue has a Player of the Year candidate in power forward Caleb Swanigan (18.5 ppg, 12.6 rpg) and another forward that is blossoming at just the right time in junior Vince Edwards.
Kansas has struggled to cover the spread by going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games against Big ten ballclubs.
On the flip side of the coin, Purdue has gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games and 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning SU record. Swanigan and Edwards will control the glass and the paint to led the Boilermakers to the upset!
NCAA Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 Upset Pick: Purdue 81 Kansas 76
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
When: Thursday, March 23, 2017 at 7:39 PM ET
Where: SAP Center, San Jose, California
Odds: Gonzaga -3
Analysis: Gonzaga (34-1 SU, 22-9 ATS) has been outstanding all season long in reaching the No. 1 national ranking for four weeks and losing just one game all season long. The Bulldogs got past South Dakota State in their opener but struggled to put Northwestern away in their 79-73 second round win the last time out.
Right now, I’m thinking the Zags are ripe for the picking against a dangerous West Virginia (28-8 SU, 14-16 ATS) team that narrowly got past an overachieving Bucknell ballclub in their tourney opener – before manhandling dangerous Notre Dame 83-71 in their Round of 32 matchup the last time out.
I know Gonzaga is the better statistical team at both ends of the floor, but I’m expecting Mountaineers junior guards Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles Jr. to wreak havoc with their pressing style of play and fast hands.
While West Virginia has compiled a bunch of pitiful ATS trends like they’re 1-4 ATS marks in their last five neutral site games and 1-9-1 ATS mark in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog, I still like the Mountaineers and their up-tempo style of play to lead them to the stunning upset over a Gonzaga team that plays very smart basketball but isn’t the most athletic ballclub around.