Alabama vs. Missouri SEC Championship Betting Line

Alabama vs. Missouri SEC Championship Betting Line

The No.1 Alabama vs. No. 17 Missouri SEC Championship betting line implies that Alabama is going to run roughshod over SEC East champion Missouri.

By kick-off Alabama could be a close to 15 points favorite to beat Missouri and go into the College Football Playoff as the number one seed. But Alabama doesn’t always cover spreads and, most importantly, they go into this battle with Missouri after having exacted revenge against top rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Could Alabama suffer a letdown?

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Missouri Tigers
When:  Saturday, Dec. 6 at 4:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Alabama -13.5

Analyzing The Alabama vs. Missouri SEC Championship Betting Line

Alabama’s offense was absolutely brilliant in the second half against Auburn last Saturday. Alabama scored 34 points in the second half to beat their rival 55 to 44. But before jumping up and down and high-fiving each other, Alabama’s fans should consider a few facts.

First, Auburn’s defense has turned into one of the worst in the SEC. It gave up 31 points to Ole Miss, 41 points to Texas A&M, and 34 points to Georgia. Second, Auburn had lost 2 out of its last 3 games, a 38 to 41 home shocker to Texas A&M and a 7 to 34 loss to Georgia. In fact, Auburn’s only victory in its last 3 games came against Division II Samford, whom the Tigers beat 31 to 7.

Finally, Alabama fans should be careful about what they wish for. Yes, the Crimson Tide got revenge over Auburn from last year’s field goal run back for six points play that knocked the Tide out of the SEC Championship game, but Alabama left a lot on the field by beating Auburn this past Saturday. Will the Tide have anything in the tank to battle the solid Missouri Tigers?

A case could be made that Missouri’s victory over Arkansas was actually better than Alabama’s victory over Auburn. Missouri faced a team in Arkansas that had held its last two SEC opponents to 0 points. The Razorbacks beat LSU 17 to 0 and then came back the very next week and beat Ole Miss 30 to 0. Missouri needed to score 15 points in the fourth quarter in order to beat Arkansas and make their way into the SEC Championship for the second straight season.

The Tigers are a good team. Mizzou has won 6 games in a row including beating Florida in The Swamp 42 to 13 and beating both Texas A&M and Tennessee on the road. The defense only allows 19.7 points and 330.9 yards per game on average.

The trends actually point to a Missouri victory against the spread in this matchup. Mizzou is 13 and 3 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 4 and 0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. The Tigers are also 16 and 5 against the spread in their last 21 conference games while Alabama is a terrible 4-11-1 against the spread in their last 16 games overall.

Alabama should win the game, but they’ll be giving up more than 2 touchdowns in this matchup before these two teams even kick it off. The Crimson Tide should march into the College Football Playoff with the number one seed. Expect Missouri to make them work for it, though, which is why the Tigers are the pick against the spread.  

Pick: Missouri +13.5