The Arizona Wildcats and UCLA Bruins will both be looking to bounce back from heartbreaking losses in Week 4 when they square off at the Rose Bowl in a Week 5 Pac-12 matchup that I believe is offering a bunch of value.
The college football Week 5 spread favors UCLA by 10.5-points to beat Arizona. Now, let’s find out which one of these Bowl game hopefuls will bring home the bacon!
Arizona Vs UCLA Spread, ATS Pick & TV Info
What: Arizona Wildcats (2-2) at UCLA Bruins (2-2)
When: Friday, September 30, 2016
Start Time: 10:30 PM ET
Where: Pasadena, CA
Stadium: Rose Bowl
Spread: UCLA -10.5
Moneyline: Arizona +405 vs UCLA -500
Game Total: 58.5
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Arizona vs UCLA
Arizona fought its heart out but came up just short in their 35-28 Week 4 overtime loss against No. 10 Washington despite easily covering the spread as a whopping 17-point underdog.
Sophomore quarterback Brandon Dawkins completed 19 of 31 passes for 167 yards with one touchdown and one interception while rushing 13 times for an additional 176 yards and two scores.
For the season, Dawkins has completed 61.7% of his passes for 625 yards with three touchdowns and one interception after taking over for injured starter Anu Solomon. Dawkins is also Arizona’s leading rusher with 391 yards and seven touchdowns.
Arizona averages a solid 30.5 points per game (66th) while limiting the opposition to 25.5 points per game defensively (61st). The bad news is that Arizona is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games and 2-4 ATS in its last half-dozen road games.
UCLA absolutely man-handled No. 7 Stanford until the very end when they allowed the Cardinal to score a go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute remaining before turning the ball over for a fumble recovery score on the game’s final play.
Quarterback Josh Rosen completed 18 of 27 passes for 248 yards and one touchdown but the Bruins’ rushing attack totaled a minuscule 77 yards in the loss and UCLA scored just three points in the second half.
For the season, Rosen is completing 61.6% of his passes for 1,165 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
UCLA is ranked an uninspiring 101st in scoring (24.0 ppg) but has been very good defensively in limiting the opposition to just 22.0 points per game (44th). The Bruins have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
College Football Week 5 Expert Pick
I thoroughly enjoyed the way UCLA put the clamps on Stanford’s Christian McCaffery last weekend before collapsing late and I believe the Bruins are the pick to get the home win over Arizona in this contest.
However, UCLA is offensively-challenged despite having a fine young quarterback in Josh Rosen and I just don’t see them pulling away from Arizona to beat them by 11 points.
I know the Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, but hell. UCLA hasn’t been any better in going 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
The bottom line for this Week 5 matchup is that Arizona and UCLA are really evenly matched and this point spread should be much closer to a field goal than double digits. I say, back the Arizona Wildcats to cover the spread with room to spare!