Auburn pretty much ended its chances to get into the College Football Playoff by losing straight up to unranked Texas A&M by a shocking 41 to 38 score.
Auburn now turns its attention to Georgia, a team that also will not be in the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff because it lost to Florida 20 to 38 two weeks ago. There is still plenty for both teams to play for, though, because spots in the SEC Championship Game are still up for grabs in both the SEC East and the SEC West.
— M R Ingram (@mringram) November 11, 2014
No. 9 Auburn Tigers at No. 14 Georgia Bulldogs
When: Saturday, Nov. 15 at 7:15 pm ET
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
Betting Line: Georgia -2.5
Moneyline: Tigers +120 Vs Bulldogs -140
Analyzing My Auburn Vs Georgia Against The Spread Pick
Auburn was ranked in the Top 4, the Selection Committee forgave the loss to Mississippi State, and the Tigers only needed to win out in order to secure a position in the College Football Playoff. Not only that, but Auburn faced a team in Texas A&M who started a freshman QB, Kyle Allen, who could only muster 106 passing yards when going 13 out of 28 and threw only a single touchdown and an interception against Louisiana-Monroe in a 21 to 16 victory over ULM as a -32 point favorite.
The Auburn defense, if it had any talent at all, should have dominated Kyle Allen and the Aggies’ offense last Saturday. Instead, Auburn made Allen look like the next coming of Johnny Football, we can start calling him Kyle Football, because he dominated the Tigers. Allen completed 65.5% of his passes and threw for 277 yards and 4 touchdowns with only a single pick against the Auburn defense.
If Allen had so much success on the road against Auburn’s defense, how successful will Georgia quarterback Hutson Mason be versus Auburn’s defense at home? It’s a rhetorical question. Georgia should light up Auburn like a Christmas tree. Mason completed over 80% of his passes against Kentucky’s defense in the 63 to 31 Georgia victory over Kentucky this past Saturday. Mason threw for 4 touchdowns against the Wildcats’ D.
To make matters worse for Auburn in this game, Georgia running back Todd Gurley, who gave Bulldog fans flashbacks of Herschel Walker before being suspended, returns to action this Saturday. Gurley may not start, but it probably won’t matter. Gurley’s replacement, Nick Chubb, is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. He’s rushed for 143, 202, 156, and 170 yards in the Bulldogs’ last 4 games.
Freshman RB Nick Chubb did a great job of filling in since Wk 7, Georgia's first game after Todd Gurley's suspension pic.twitter.com/hjyjuRDpdI
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) November 12, 2014
Auburn’s defense gives up an average of 130 yards per game on the ground. The defense allows teams to score 24 points on average while Georgia’s offense is good for 43 points per game on average.
When it comes to trends, Georgia is easily the play. The Bulldogs are 8 and 1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The favorite is 5 and 0 in the last 5 meetings between these two and the home team is 6 and 1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
The bottom line is that Auburn’s offense won’t be able to keep up with Georgia’s offense. Auburn got exposed by Texas A&M in their last game and the Tigers have gone 1 and 3 ATS in their last 4 games.
Georgia should roll to an easy victory in this matchup.
My ATS Pick: Georgia -2.5