Bet My Triple Threat College Football Week 7 Upset PicksJosh Bailey
With a seemingly endless string of top-ranked national title contenders on the wrong end of upset losses this past weekend, you should know that there’s more in store when it comes to likely upsets taking place this coming weekend.
Finding the right upset game and underdog team can often be a tough task, but conversely, it’s also one of the most efficient ways to boosting the annual college football betting bankroll.
With that thought in mind, here is a look at a trio of Week 7 contests whose underdog participants all have the chance to cash in big against their favored opponents.
College Football Week 7 Upset Picks
USC at No. 13 Arizona
When: Sat, Oct. 11
Where: Arizona Stadium
Kickoff: 10:30 PM ET
Spread: Arizona +2.5
Analysis: USC is coming off a heartbreaking, last second 38-34 Week 6 loss against Arizona State while the undefeated Arizona Wildcats come into this Week 7 matchup feeling very good after beating former No. 2 Oregon 31-24 in their Week 6 battle of unbeatens.
Now, these Pac-12 rivals will square off in a prime time clash that looks as intriguing as any contest on the Week 7 schedule.
Having said all of this, I’m going on record right now to say that I really like Arizona to get the ‘upset’ home win in this contest, even though the reality is that it won’t be an upset for the Wildcats at all.
While USC averages a stellar 33.0 points per game, Arizona has been a bit better at scoring the ball as they enter this contest averaging 39.8 points per contest. While the ‘Cats do allow 5.0 more points per game than Southern Cal defensively, they’ve also gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against USC while the underdog has gone a near-perfect 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
The Trojans fell apart late before giving up the game-winning score on a 46-yard touchdown pass from Mike Bercovici to Jaelen Strong.
"You learn the hard way in games like this," USC coach Steve Sarkisian said. "It was an awkward Hail Mary. The ball floated back to the middle of the field. It was a heck of a play by (Strong) tracking it."
True freshman Nick Wilson ran for two touchdowns and caught a scoring pass from redshirt freshman quarterback Anu Solomon to help the Wildcats open the season with five straight victories for the first time since 1998, prompting Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota to say, "They’re undefeated. It’s obviously a testament to our conference. If you’re not prepared each week, if you’re not ready to play, you’ll lose."
— Arizona Athletics (@AZATHLETICS) October 6, 2014
With USC going 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games and a pitiful 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a winning home record, I say back the Arizona Wildcats to win this one behind their poised young quarterback in an outcome that won’t be an upset at all in my mind.
The Pick: Arizona +2.5 Points
Washington State at No. 22 Stanford
When: Fri., Oct. 10
Where: Stanford Stadium
Kickoff: 9:00 PM ET
Spread: Washington State +17
Analysis: I really like the Stanford Cardinal this season and genuinely believe they can play with any team in the country, despite the fact that they’re entering this contest with two losses on the season.
Having said that, I also want to encourage you to back the struggling Washington State Cougars in their Week 7 matchup against the Cardinal, mostly because they haven’t lost a single game this season by more than 11 points and have done a very good job of putting points on the board lately.
Sure, Stanford has won six straight over Washington State, including last season’s 55-17 road win, but the Cougars are also averaging two touchdowns per game more than the Cardinal on offense, leading me to believe they’re going to keep the final score well within the nearly three-touchdown spread that it currently is.
If you don’t know, Cougars quarterback Connor Halliday has played absolutely jaw-dropping football this season in throwing for at least 389 yards in every game while setting a new, single-game FBS record for passing yards against Cal in the Cougars crushing 60-59 Week 6 home loss.
Halliday threw for 734 yards against California on Saturday night to break a record that Houston’s David Klingler set against Arizona State way back in 1990.
Halliday’s 734 yards are also the most passing yards in any game in Division I history, surpassing the 730 yards Old Dominion’s Taylor Heinicke threw for against New Hampshire in 2012.
With the Cougars going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, I say Washington State gets the ATS cover at the very least.
I still like Stanford a lot and believe they’ll get back in the win column by getting past Washington State in this Pac-12 matchup, but I think the final score is going to be a lot closer than expected.
The Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against Stanford while the road team in this series is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings, making Washington State the correct pick to cover the huge spread.
The Pick: Washington State +17 Points
Louisville at No. 25 Clemson
When: Sat, Oct. 11
Where: Clemson Memorial Stadium
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Spread: Louisville +12.5
Analysis: The Louisville Cardinals have won three straight games, including their convincing 28-6 Week 6 win over Syracuse as a 1.5-point road favorite. The Clemson Tigers have won two straight affairs in which they’ve put up a bunch of points, including their emphatic 41-0 shutout win over North Carolina State on Saturday as a 14-point home fave.
Now, the Tigers are nearly two-touchdown favorites over the Cardinals, but I don’t see it happening against a Louisville defense that is ranked first in the nation in total defense (230.2 ypg), 12th against the pass, first against the run (58.3 ypg) and sixth in points allowed (12.7 ppg).
The Cardinals recorded not one, but two safeties in beating the Orange the last time out.
"Our defense played really well," head coach Bobby Petrino said. "They did a great job. They were fast and physical and did a nice job of communicating and doing what we needed to do."
While the Tigers played Florida State tough in their 23-17 overtime loss to the nation’s No. 1 team, I’m not s firm believe in Clemson and think Louisville could have a chance to get the outright win.
Clemson may be 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, but Louisville has compiled an incendiary 16-5 ATS mark in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record while also going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games overall.
I’m taking the Cardinals, behind their stingy defense, to get the job done!
The Pick: Louisville +12.5 Points