Week 5 NCAAF Betting Lines & Picks – Minnesota at Michigan From Ann Arbor, MIJosh Bailey
The Minnesota Golden Gophers will look to keep their good times rolling while adding to the Michigan Wolverines’ misery when the two teams square off in their Week 5 Big Ten battle for a Little Brown Jug.
Minnesota at Michigan
When: Saturday, September 27, 2014
Where: Michigan Stadium
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Spread: Michigan -11.5
— Minnesota Gophers (@GopherSports) September 24, 2014
Best of all, you’re going to have a great chance to cash in with a winning wager thanks to the expert college football pick you’re about to get.
NCAAF Betting Lines & Picks Preview – Golden Gophers at Wolverines
Minnesota (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) is coming off an impressive 24-7 win over San Diego State while covering the spread as an 8-point home favorite to snap their modest two-game ATS losing streak.
The Gophers rushed the ball a mind-boggling 58 times for 380 yards against the Spartans and that’s a good thing with freshman quarterback Chris Streveler completing just 1 of 7 passes for seven yards with one interception. The good news is that Streveler also carried the ball 18 times for a stellar 161 yards and one touchdown to earn co-Freshman of the Week honors on Monday.
Streveler, a redshirt freshman, was making his first career start on Saturday in place of the injured starter Mitch Leidner.
The Gophers are averaging 27.0 points per game (85th) while ranking 30th in the nation in rushing (263.2 ypg). Defensively, Minnesota is ranked inside the Top 85 in every meaningful statistical category, including points allowed (20.2 ppg, 35th).
“I think whenever you play a Jerry Kill team …It’s his DNA to run the football,” Michigan head coach Brady Hoke said on Wednesday.
Michigan (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is coming into this contest off a humbling 26-10 Week 4 loss to Utah in which they never came close to covering the spread as a 3-point home favorite.
The Wolverines have alternated wins and losses over their four games this season and now, many in Wolverine nation are calling for the team to fire Hoke. Not only that, but the team has issues at quarterback where Hoke has refused to name a starter for this contest.
Fifth-year senior quarterback Devin Gardner completed just 14 of 26 passes for 148 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Gardner has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five) in four starts.
Hoke pulled Gardner against the Utes in favor of sophomore Shane Morris, who wasn’t any better in completing just 4-of-13 passes for 42 yards with an interception and a fumble.
"We’ll make that decision tomorrow," Hoke told reporters on Wednesday when asked who his starter would be against Michigan. "They both know what they need to do better, and they will. They both competed and made good decisions, also."
Michigan is ranked 94th in the nation in scoring (24.0 ppg), but they’re also ranked 34th in points allowed (20.2 ppg) and have the nation’s eight-best run defense (80.2 ypg).
Game Analysis: I like the Wolverine’s chances of winning this game at home, mostly because they have the perfect defense to stop Minnesota’s powerful rushing attack, not to mention they’re desperate right now.
Still though, I don’t think the Wolverines are going to cover the spread seeing as how Minnesota has gone 6-0 ATS in their last half-dozen conference games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last five games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games in the month of September, not to mention a pitiful 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games against teams with a winning record.
I like the Minnesota Gophers to get the ATS cover, if not the outright win.
My Pick: Minnesota +11.5 Points
Starts: 09/27/2014 3:30PM
If you like this pick then you should also wager on Oregon State to cash in as a 13-point road dog against No. 18 USC on Saturday.