See what Billy Beane, of Moneyball fame, started!
The saber metrics legend and his love of statistical data, has spread far and wide over the last two decades.
No longer limited to Major League Baseball, numbers-crunching fanatics everywhere now to get the best bang for their bucks whether they’re a professional sports team’s GM, a handicapping maven or a betting enthusiast looking to strike it rich.
Having said that… collegiate gridiron gamblers everywhere will enjoy this Week 8 trio of Big 12 battles…because again, it’s all about the numbers.
No. 16 Texas Tech at West Virginia
Texas Tech -6.5
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) remained undefeated by narrowly beating Iowa State 42-35 in Week 7, though they failed to cover the spread as a 14-point home favorite to fall to 1-2 ATS over their L/3 games.
The West Virginia Mountaineers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) continued their act of being one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation. The Mountaineers have alternated SU wins and losses all season long and are coming off a disheartening 73-42 blowout loss to Baylor in Week 6 in which they never came close to covering the spread as an insane 30-point road dog.
Analysis: I like the Texas Tech Red Raiders to get the outright road win and accompanying ATS cover, mostly because of their potent offense and in spite of their unimpressive ATS numbers in similar situations.
Thanks to some in-depth research, NCAAF gamblers now know that, in their last 20 rod games as a favorite between 6.5 and 8.0 points, the Red Raiders are just 13-7 SU and 8-11-1 ATS. However, they are also 2-1 ATS in their last three such situations.
Conversely, West Virginia is an identical 13-7 SU and ATS in identical situations as a home dog with identical points spreads.
The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games while West Virginia has compiled a polar opposite 2-5 ATS mark in their L/7 games overall.
The Red Raiders won the only other meeting between these schools, easily bringing home the
The Pick: Texas Tech Minus the Points
TCU at No. 17 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -7
The TCU Horned Frogs (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) and the seventeenth-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) will both be looking to record consecutive victories when they battle in a Big 12 matchup on Saturday.
TCU is coming off a solid, but not overly impressive 27-17 win over Kansas the last time out, though they never came close to covering the spread as a 24.5-point home favorite to snap a modest two-game ATS winning streak.
Oklahoma State is coming off a narrow 33-29 win over Kansas State in Week 6, though they also failed to cover the spread as a 12.5-point home favorite to fall to 0-2 ATS over their last two games.
Analysis: These two teams are very evenly matched defensively as they both allow right around 21.0 points per game defensively. However, Oklahoma State is far more explosive offensively as they average a stellar 38.0 points per game compared to TCU’s 27.8 per contest.
Oklahoma State pounded the snot out of TCU in these schools’ only other meeting, winning 36-14 to cash in against the spread as a 7-point home favorite last season.
Throw in the fact that the Horned Frogs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games while Oklahoma State has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. And it’s easy to see why the Cowboys will win and cash in.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -7 Points
Iowa State at No.12 Baylor
The Baylor Bears (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) may have an undefeated record and they’ll be playing at home against an Iowa State Cyclones (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS) team that just can’t catch a break this season.
Having said that, there’s no way I can bring myself to advise any college football bettor to back the Bears and their insanely high point spread, even with the team scoring points like they’re going out of style this season.
Iowa State is coming off a crushing 42-35 road loss to Teas Tech in Week 7, though they covered the spread with rook to spare as a 14-point dog. Baylor remained unbeaten by beating K-State 35-25 in Week 7, but they never came close to covering the spread as a 17-point road favorite.
Analysis: I know the Baylor Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against Iowa State dating back to 1996, but I love the fact that the Cyclones have been in every single game they’ve played this season – and I’m still sick to my stomach about the loss (cheat?) they took to Teas two weeks ago.
Iowa Stat has not lost a game by more than eight points this season and I suspect they’re not going to be in any danger of not covering this insane point spread against a Baylor team that didn’t look overly unbeatable in last week’s win over K-State.
Forget the Iowa State’s dismal ATS road mark against Baylor, the Cyclone’s are 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games and I like them to easily cover the spread here.
The Pick: Iowa State +32.5 Points