College Football Betting Judgement Day – Baylor Vs. OSU

The BCS computer has finally recognized what NCAAF betting junkies have been touting all season – the Baylor Bears are for real. Bryce Petty and the country’s highest scoring offence continued to steamroll their competition with a 63-34 win over Texas Tech and have jumped up to fourth in the standings, thanks in large part to Stanford stumbling against the Trojans. With their sights set on the Big 12 title, Baylor has two more massive challenges in front of them. Despite the line on this game, Oklahoma State is not a team to be taken lightly.

If you’ve been riding Baylor all season it’s almost impossible to get off this profit churning train right now. Even with the public suddenly cramming on to the bandwagon, lines against Baylor continue to be inviting every week. That’s what happens when you score 61.2 points per game, lead the league with 686.2 yards per matchup and boast an 8-1 ATS record.

#4 Baylor Bears (9-0) vs. #10 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1)
The Baylor Bears are 9 point favorites against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in week 13.
Starts: 11/23/2013 8:00PM
Boone Pickens Stadium at Lewis Field, 422 Aquires
Stillwater, Oklahoma


For their part, Oklahoma State has been a college football betting freight train in their own right. They’re 7-3 ATS this season, and are on a stiff 5-0 SU and ATS run over their last 5 games. During that stretch, the Cowboys have allowed just 23.8 points per game and have blown up the scoreboard with 41.2 points per game in their last 6 victories. Keeping up with Baylor – or stopping them outright – is a tough thing to ask of any team. It’s especially difficult considering that Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness is their passing defense, while their biggest strength is their rushing attack.

You can’t beat Baylor by running the football to burn up the clock. The Bears don’t just score at will – they play extremely fast. Oklahoma State’s suspect passing defense has given up 425 yards against Texas Tech recently and aren’t equipped to slow down the barrage of offence that Bryce Petty brings with him. Baylor always seems to play one step ahead of everyone they play, and with their foot slammed against the gas pedal for four full quarters, Oklahoma State’s defense will be gasping for air as they search for answers.


Sat-Nov 23-2013
Northern Illinois
NIU -2.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Central Florida
UCF- 17
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Kansas State
KSU -3.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Florida State
IDHO +56
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Ohio State
OSU -31.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
ARI +19
Sat-Nov 23-2013
CAL +31.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
UGA -23.5

It’s also very hard to imagine Baylor taking this game lightly. They have perhaps the toughest closing schedule of any top-10 team in the country. They’ve already manhandled Oklahoma, who were ranked 10th at the time ironically, in a 41-12 decimation and followed that up by beating Texas Tech in to a pulp. Oklahoma State is their last, real big game left as TCU and Texas won’t offer that much upset appeal in their final two games.

Betting on Baylor has virtually become automatic at this point. You may want to ignore Baylor’s defense, but they have allowed just 17.4 points against this season. Only West Virginia, Kansas State and Texas Tech have breached the 20-point ceiling against the Bears. Now a lot of that has to do with Baylor’s offense dominating the time of possession, but it also speaks volumes about how under appreciated Baylor is on the score stopping side of the football.

I like Oklahoma State. They’ve been a fun ride for the past month or so. But a handful of covers and wins isn’t impactful enough to make me turn my back on Baylor as road favorites this weekend. They have been the most reliable bet in this conference all season, and they’ve met every challenge with the same, full-throttle intensity that they’ve shown all season. Nobody has been able to stop them, and Oklahoma State will not be the exception.

NCAAF Betting Pick – Baylor -8.5