Alabama at LSU Expert Betting Pick

College Football Betting Picks – Johnny Football Battles Sinking LSU Tigers

This has been a season of misfortune for the LSU Tigers, who have sunk to a 4-5-1 ATS record in college football betting this season while picking up three losses. The two week bye couldn’t have come at a better time for Les Miles, whose team suffered a humiliating 17-38 loss against the Alabama Crimson Tide last time they were on the field. All in all, it’s impossible to trust LSU because they aren’t living up to their identity this season.

Perhaps one of the most telling signs about LSU is their record against game totals this year. They’ve hit the OVER in 8-of-10 games this year. Their 37.9 points per game average certainly helps them hit that mark, but LSU’s usually strong defense has been extremely suspect this year. The Tigers rank just 38th in the country with 23.5 points against on average, and their defensive vulnerabilities make them an easy target for strong offenses.

#12 Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) vs. #22 LSU Tigers (7-3)
The Texas A&M Aggies are 4 point dogs visiting the LSU Tigers in the NCAAF week 13.
Starts: 11/23/2013 3:30PM
Tiger Stadium
Baton Rouge, Louisiana


That seems like a recipe for disaster with Johnny Manziel roaring in to town with his team riding a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS winning streak. The Aggies produce the third most yards in the country with 578.0 yards per game, and rank fifth in points scored with 49.2 per game as well. A marquee win over one of the SEC’s top, name value teams could very well help Manziel’s Heisman case. Johnny Football is one of three quarterbacks in the country that now has a realistic chance at winning the most outstanding player award now that Mariota seems out of the running (Alabama’s McCarron and FSU’s Winston are the two favorites).

Stymieing the excitement around Texas A&M is the fact that they’re just 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS when travelling this year. They beat up Arkansas 45-33 and barely held off Mississippi in a 41-38 thriller, but neither game covered the spread. This is only the second time all year that Texas A&M has been an underdog. The other time was at home against the Crimson Tide, where they covered as +8.0 home dogs in a nail biting 42-49 loss.


Sat-Nov 23-2013
Northern Illinois
NIU -2.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Central Florida
UCF- 17
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Kansas State
KSU -3.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Florida State
IDHO +56
Sat-Nov 23-2013
Ohio State
OSU -31.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
ARI +19
Sat-Nov 23-2013
CAL +31.5
Sat-Nov 23-2013
UGA -23.5

Even though the Aggies have only lost to top-ranked Alabama and sixth-ranked Auburn, Texas A&M’s chances of breaking in to the BCS are slim to none. They still have very strong odds of appearing in a prime time bowl game because of the fanfare Johnny Football brings along with him, but they have to win out to maintain their overall appeal. This is also a revenge game for the Aggies, who lost 19-24 against the Tigers late last year.

Les Miles has never put together a great offensive team because he’s always been able to rely on his bullish defenses, but that isn’t the case this year. The Tigers just don’t have enough punch in the scoring department to keep up with the Aggies, and their defense simply isn’t reliable enough at all levels to prevent Manziel from camping out in the endzone. The revenge element, Manziel’s fringe Heisman hopes, Texas A&M’s potential in the rankings and LSU’s shaky defense all combine to make the road dogs the more logical play in this big, college football betting battle.

College Football Betting Pick – Texas A&M +4.0