College football expert picks don’t get much better than the one you’re about to get on Saturday’s Week 4 matchup between the Bowling Green Falcons and ‘semi-desperate’ Wisconsin Badgers.
— Badger Football (@BadgerFootball) September 17, 2014
Bowling Green has won two straight, including their thrilling 45-42 Week 3 win over Indiana while Wisconsin looks to record consecutive wins for the first time this season after pounding Western Illinois 37-3 in Week 2.
Matchup: Bowling Green at No. 19 Wisconsin
Spread: Wisconsin -27
When: Saturday, September 20, 2014
Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET
College Football Expert Pick Preview – Bowling Green Vs. Wisconsin
After dropping their regular season opener 59-31 at Western Kentucky, Bowling Green (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) has beaten Virginia Military Institute 48-7 in Week 2 to cover the spread as a 38.5-point home favorite and taken out Indiana 45-42 to cash in against the NCAAF betting line as an 8.5-point home underdog.
The Falcons are ranked 29th in the nation in scoring (41.3 ppg) and racked up a whopping 526 yards of offense against VMI and 571 yards against Indiana, thanks to their suddenly-blossoming sophomore signal-caller, James Knapke.
The poised underclassman set school records for attempts (73) and completions (46) against the Hoosiers while tossing three TD passes and one interception.
"I think the players and the team had some juice stolen from them early in the season. And we got a little bit of that back," coach Dino Babers said.
— BG Football (@BG_Football) September 17, 2014
Wisconsin (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) bounced back nicely from their 28-24 season-opening loss against LSU to beat Western Illinois badly behind an outstanding performance from junior quarterback Tanner McEvoy.
The strong-armed junior completed 23 of 28 passes against the Leathernecks for three touchdowns and one interception while adding another 55 rushing yards and one score on nine carries.
College Football Expert Pick Analysis – Bowling Green Vs. Wisconsin
I’ll get right to the point by saying that I like Wisconsin to win this Week 4 matchup but Bowling Green to cover the college football betting line – with room to spare.
Yes, I know Bowling Green is more of a mid-major kind of program than an elite, national title contender, but the Falcons can certainly score the ball and I believe they will against the Badgers, at least enough to keep the final score close.
While I’m a bit leery of the fact that the Badgers have compiled an incendiary 10-1 ATS mark in their last 11 games following a bye week, I like the fact that Bowling Green has gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games in the month of September and an even more impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an SU win.
The Badgers are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and have struggled mightily to cover the spread in going 0-5 ATS in their L/5 games overall.
Last but not least, the Falcons have posted an impressive 19-7 ATS mark in their last 26 games overall while also going 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.
Again, I like Wisconsin for the SU win but the Bowling Green Falcons to cover the spread with a solid effort.