College Football Free Picks Texas Tech Vs Oklahoma State From Stillwater, OK – Sept 25, 2014Josh Bailey
The Oklahoma State Cowboys host the ‘drama-laden’ Texas Tech Red Raiders in a Big 12 matchup that gets underway on Thursday night live from Boone Pickens Stadium. But before you bet study my week 5 college football free picks.
— Cowboy Football (@CowboyFB) September 22, 2014
The Cowboys will look to extend their modest two-game winning streak when they host a Red Raiders team that not only lost its last contest, but one that enters this matchup with more than its share of negativity thanks to the abrupt dismissal of defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt.
Let’s take a look at both teams before I offer up my expert free pick on this intriguing Big 12 pairing.
Texas Tech at No. 24 Oklahoma State
When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 25, 2014
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Spread: Oklahoma State -14
Texas Tech got blown out of the water in its 49-28 Week 3 loss to Arkansas while never coming close to covering the spread as a Pick ‘Em selection to fall to a dismal 0-3 ATS on the season.
The Red Raiders got an uneven from quarterback Davis Webb as the sophomore completed just 27 of 45 passes while throwing three touchdown passes but canceling them out with two costly interceptions. Texas Tech also lost a fumble in the contest to compound their mistake-filled day.
The Red Raiders also got shredded for a whopping 438 rushing yards, including 212 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries by Arkansas sophomore running back Alex Collins and another 145 yards and four scores on 22 carries from junior running back Jonathan Williams.
— Texas Tech Athletics (@TechAthletics) September 22, 2014
Texas Tech currently ranks 112th in the country in points allowed (36.7) and a pitiful 125th in rushing yards allowed (297.7). The Red Raiders are ranked an impressive 17th in passing and are averaging 33.3 points per game (61st).
Despite the Red Raiders’ inability to stop the run, Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy said he doesn’t play to alter his offensive attack plan to feature more rushing.
“Not really any, because Arkansas (runs) a completely different system than what we have,” Gundy said. “That’s kind of a broad answer for a lot of people … but Arkansas is going to play with two tight ends and a fullback. I’m going to guess they practice those plays a lot. So it’s a different scheme for us than what Arkansas plays with on a week-to-week basis.”
Texas Tech also has its fair share of ‘drama’ coming into this matchup with defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt abruptly resigning from his position on Thursday after a report that said the coach was sent home from the football facility on Monday for allegedly being on campus under the influence of an unknown controlled substance.
"I have submitted my resignation to Coach Kingsbury effective immediately because I want the best for the Red Raider program, and this will allow them to go in a different direction on defense," Wallerstedt said in a statement. "I love our players and this school and have only their best interest in my heart and mind. I wish Coach Kingsbury every success this season."
Oklahoma State has bounced back nicely from their crushing, 37-31 season-opening home loss against No. 1 Florida State and come into this Week 5 matchup off an impressive 43-13 spanking of underrated UTSA as a 12-point home favorite in Week 3.
The Cowboys got a solid day out of junior signal-caller Daxx Gorman as he completed 16 of 30 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns while senior running back Desmond Roland added 95 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. Garman is completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 559 yards and four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Oklahoma State has been very solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 39th in scoring (38.0 ppg) while allowing just 24.3 points per game defensively (65th). Oklahoma State is allowing 352 yards per contest (45th) and has forced three turnovers and 10 sacks.
Free Pick Betting Analysis
Oklahoma State has won – and covered the spread – in five straight games in this series, including last season’s 52-34 rout as a 2-point road favorite and I expect them to do the same in this contest.
Not only do the Cowboys average about 5.0 points per game more than the Red Raiders, but they’re also the better team on defense by far as they also allow 12.4 fewer points per game.
Texas Tech is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Conversely, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games and a blistering 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games.
The favorite in this Big 12 series is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and Texas Tech is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against Oklahoma State.
With Texas Tech going 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games and Oklahoma State going 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games overall, I think it’s easy to see the Cowboys are the right pick to win and cash in!
My College Football Free Pick: Oklahoma State -14