College Football Week 10 Lock Picks

College Football Week 10 Lock Picks

Even Michael Bay couldn’t script the 2014 college football betting season heading into Tuesday’s anticipated release of the first rankings from College Football Playoff’s selection committee. 

Just this past weekend’s 45 point victors Wisconsin Badgers closing at -10 or the 82-point scoring TCU Horned Frogs closing at -24 were just the beginning of improbable victories. Then there was LSU’s victory over third ranked Ole Miss in Death Valley after a couple of regrettable decisions by Rebels’ head coach Hugh Freeze and quarterback Bo Wallace.

Heading into week 10, there are a few guaranteed bets that you can make and here are my lock picks. Click here for more week 10 college football odds.

College Football Week 10 Lock Picks

No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 20 West Virginia Mountaineers
When:  Saturday, Nov. 1 at 3:30 pm ET
Betting Line: TCU -5 

Analysis: West Virginia is a very good football team. The Mountaineers have won 4 games in a row including beating both Baylor and Oklahoma State as an underdog. The victory over Baylor, as an 8.5 point home dog, was absolutely brilliant.

West Virginia out-gained Baylor 456 to 318 total yards. The Mountaineers scored 41 points against Baylor’s decent defense, but TCU presents a whole other set of issues for West Virginia. The Horned Frogs are a covering machine. Thanks to the 82 that TCU hung onto Texas Tech in Week 9, they’re also the top scoring team in the nation at 50.4 points per game.

Defensively, TCU can stop a good offense. The Horned Frogs allow only 317.9 yards and 21.6 points per game. West Virginia should lose this one straight up by at least 7 to 10.

Pick: TCU Horned Frogs -5

Kansas Jayhawks at No. 12 Baylor Bears
When:  Saturday, Nov.1 at 4:00 pm ET
TV:  FOX Sports 1
Betting Line: Baylor -35.5

Analysis: It makes sense to stick with the Big 12 for the lock picks for Week 10. Baylor had no answer for West Virginia on the road in their last, but they should bounce back and score at least 50 if not 60 against a porous Kansas Jayhawks defense in Week 10.

The Bears are 22 and 4 against the spread in their last 26 home games and 7 and 0 against the spread in their last 7 home games versus a team with a losing record. Kansas is 0 and 6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week and 7-20-1 against the spread in their last 28 road games. Kansas is also 3 and 9 ATS in their last 12 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Baylor will want to remind the Selection Committee that they are one of the top teams in the nation. Expect at least a 30 point blow-out in this game.  

Pick: Baylor Bears -35.5

Illinois Illini at No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes
When:  Saturday, Nov.1 at 8:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Ohio State -28.5

Analysis: The way that Ohio State let Penn State back into the game in a 31 to 24 victory was absolutely dreadful. Ohio State is not a team deserving of any Selection Committee praise, that’s for sure.

The non-cover broke a streak where the Buckeyes had covered in 4 straight contests. Ohio State had also scored 50 points or more in 4 straight and had been knocking on the door to the Top 10 before the horrible performance on the road against the Nittany Lions.

No worries for Buckeye fans. Illinois might be exactly what Ohio State needs to show how good they really are. The Illini are allowing 34 points and 475 yards per game. They’ve gone 2 and 4 against the spread in their last 6 games and give up 258.6 yards per game on the ground.

Urban Meyer isn’t going to pull any punches. He needs his Buckeyes to put a serious beat down on Illinois if Ohio State expects to be close to being considered for a spot in the College Football Playoffs. The Buckeyes will roll.

Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes -28.5