College Football Week 12 Upset Pick – Texas at Oklahoma StateJosh Bailey
Even though the game between Texas and Oklahoma State won’t have a single thing to do with the College Football Playoff, it’s still interesting to football handicappers.
Both Texas and Oklahoma State are rebuilding this season and both have shown flashes of being very good teams and very bad teams. Oklahoma State actually started the season out hot when winning 5 out of its first 6 contests. Can Oklahoma State find its early season magic against Texas?
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys
When: Saturday, Nov. 15 at 7:30 pm ET
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Betting Line: Texas -2.5
Moneyline: Longhorns -135 Vs. Cowboys +115
Analyzing My NCAAF Week 12 Upset Pick
Since starting out the season going 5 and 1 straight up, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have fallen apart. Oklahoma State is 0 and 3 straight up in its last 3 games. The Cowboys lost 9 to 42 to TCU before dropping a home game against West Virginia 10 to 34. Then, in the Cowboys’ last game, Kansas State absolutely destroyed the team that T. Boone built 48 to 14.
Oklahoma State has been worse against the spread this season than they have been straight up. The Cowboys are 3 and 6 against the spread overall this season and 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 games. They’re just not a very good team right now, but there could be a sliver of hope for Oklahoma State in their contest against Texas on Saturday.
The Cowboys are averaging 386.4 yards per game. The offense is somewhat balanced as 150 of those yards come via the rush and 235.1 of those yards come via the pass. Oklahoma State averages 28 points per game and it faces a Texas defense that, even though its on a roll, has allowed teams to rack up a ton of points this season.
Texas has held two very good offenses, Texas Tech’s and West Virginia’s, to 13 and 16 points respectively, in the Longhorns’ last two games. First year Coach Charlie Strong finally appears to have his team playing the way that he’s wanted them to since the season started. Texas has won its last two games, scoring over 30 points in each one, and the defense has been awesome.
But Texas is still young and they could get caught up in the hype of being a road favorite against the Cowboys this Saturday. Not to mention the fact that Texas will be without offensive lineman Darius James who is out for the remainder of the season after injuring his knee in the win over West Virginia. The team has been playing all season long without offensive lineman Desmond Harrison who was suspended before the season even started.
The trends point to this game being a toss-up. While Texas is 5 and 2 against the spread in their last 7 road games, the Longhorns are also 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win. While Oklahoma State is 13 and 5 against the spread in their last 18 home games, the Cowboys are also 0 and 5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
The game is a toss-up and in a toss-up go for the home dog getting points. That just makes sense since Oklahoma State probably figured some things out during the bye week while Texas might be a bit flat after a huge win over West Virginia in their last matchup.