It is a light week for games in the NCAA but there’s still enough for 3 terrific College Football Week 15 ATS Picks. The first game is this Thursday, Dec. 4, when UCF battles East Carolina. Then, on Saturday, Iowa State takes on Texas Christian while the Big Ten Championship is setting up as a possible Wisconsin rout.
TCU, Ohio State and Baylor Résumé Comparison » pic.twitter.com/tfR9ifoXaC
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) December 1, 2014
Analyzing My College Football Week 15 ATS Picks
UCF Golden Knights at East Carolina Pirates
When: Thursday, Dec. 4 at 7:30 pm ET
Betting Line: East Carolina -5.5
Analysis: In hind-sight, East Carolina just wasn’t as good as the 28 to 21 victory over Virginia Tech way back on September 13 implied. The Pirates have gone a ridiculous 1 and 7 against the spread in their last 8 games.
They’re a favorite over a UCF team that is allowing only 16.8 points and 271 total yards per matchup. UCF is 5 and 1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record, 6 and 2 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up win and 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
The Knights are also 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two while East Carolina is a terrible 4 and 15 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.
Week 15 College Football ATS Pick: UCF +5.5
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 5 Texas Christian Horned Frogs
When: Saturday, Dec. 6 at 12:00 pm ET
Betting Line: TCU -32
Analysis: Wow, 32 points is an awful lot, isn’t it? But, TCU beat Texas 48 to 10 in Austin on Thanksgiving Day and football handicappers should not look past that victory. Texas had been on a roll. The Longhorns’ defense had been playing about as well as any defense in the nation going into that matchup.
Saturday's game vs. Iowa State will have an 11 am kickoff and be televised on ABC. Horned Frogs are playing for a Big 12 championship!
— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) November 30, 2014
TCU is 7 and 0 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8 and 0 against the spread in their last 8 games on grass and 11 and 2 against the spread in their last 13 games overall. The Cyclones are 0 and 7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Iowa State is also 1-3-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record and the defense is allowing 511 yards and 34 points per game on average. The Horned Frogs should roll.
Week 15 College Football ATS Pick:TCU -32
No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes
When: Saturday, Dec. 6 at 8:17 pm ET
Betting Line: Wisconsin -4
Analysis: The trends actually favor Ohio State in this game. The Buckeyes are 29-14-2 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and the Badgers are 2 and 6 ATS in their last 8 games following an against the spread loss and 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 neutral site games.
ICYMI #Badgers moved up to No. 11 in both A.P. & Coaches polls. Highest ranking for UW since final polls of 2011. OSU No. 6 in both polls.
— Badger Football (@BadgerFootball) December 1, 2014
Ohio State also looks good based on the head-to-head matchup trends. But, the issue for the Buckeyes is that their defense is allowing 145 yards per game on the ground on average while Wisconsin is rushing for 334.2 yards per game on the ground. Wisconsin’s defense is also allowing only 16.8 points and 260 yards per game.
Ohio State is down to their third string quarterback. Wisconsin should easily cover this spread.