College Football Week 15 Lock PicksJosh Bailey
Even though there are only a handful of games this week in college football, there is still enough of those games to come up with a few terrific College Football Week 15 Lock Picks.
On Friday, Northern Illinois battles Bowling Green in a game that Northern Illinois really wants to win. Then, on Saturday, rivals Oklahoma State and Oklahoma battle while Kansas State and Baylor throw down in a matchup with possible College Football Playoff implications.
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) November 30, 2014
Analyzing My College Football Week 15 Lock Picks
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
When: Friday, Dec. 5 at 7:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Northern Illinois -5.5
Analysis: The trends won’t tell you the real story about this game. Based on the trends, Bowling Green is the pick because they are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and they’re 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Huskies are 1 and 7 ATS in their last 8 games in December and 3 and 7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
But, football handicappers should consider throwing all of those trends out because Northern Illinois will be looking for revenge in this contest. The Falcons ended the Huskies perfect season in 2013 when beating them in this game. The Huskies are plenty motivated to put a beat down on the Falcons in this matchup and Northern Illinois has actually gone 3 and 1 ATS in their last 4.
College Football Week 15 Lock Pick: Northern Illinois -5.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys at 16 Oklahoma Sooners
When: Saturday, Dec. 6 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: FOX Sports 1
Betting Line: Oklahoma -20
Analysis: Since QB Trevor Knight may or may not play, the betting line of Oklahoma -20 could change dramatically before kick-off. By dramatically, Oklahoma may only be a -10 point favorite if Knight can’t suit up.
— Oklahoma Sooners (@OU_Athletics) December 1, 2014
These two teams are bitter rivals and although many football handicappers will want to make a case for Oklahoma State, the truth is that the Sooners should find a way to cover the spread no matter if it’s 10 or 20 points. Oklahoma State’s defense is okay, but Oklahoma wins this battle based on the trends.
The Sooners are 5 and 1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points, 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 8 and 3 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
Oklahoma State is 2 and 7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 1 and 4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma. The Sooners should be a lock ATS with or without Knight under center.
College Football Week 15 Lock Pick: Oklahoma Sooners -20
No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats at No. 5 Baylor Bears
When: Saturday, Dec. 6 at 7:45 pm ET
Betting Line: N/A
Analysis: Baylor QB Bryce Petty is questionable due to a concussion, but with or without Petty, Baylor could be in trouble against the spread in this contest. The Bears have gone 2 and 4 against the spread in their last 6 games and the defense gave up 26 points to Oklahoma State and 46 points to Texas Tech in Baylor’s last 2 matchups.
"If we beat Kansas State, we'll be the Big 12 Conference Champion with the head-to-head over TCU. It'd be very hard to keep us out." – McCaw
— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) December 1, 2014
Kansas State averages 428 points and 36.6 points per game. The Wildcats’ defense is giving up only 20 points. Kansas State has gone 8 and 1 ATS in their last 9 games. No matter the spread, even if K-State is favored, the Wildcats should cover in this matchup because they have the much better defense and are a spread covering machine.
College Football Week 15 Lock Pick: Kansas State ATS
— K-State Athletics (@kstatesports) December 1, 2014