College Football Week 4 Free Upset Pick – Virginia at No. 21 BYUJosh Bailey
College football Week 4 free picks don’t get much better than it will when the Virginia Cavaliers look to hand the surprising BYU Cougars their first loss of the season when the two teams clash at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday.
The Cavaliers (2-1) have the Cougars’ respect, despite having gone 2-10 last year.
“Virginia is an improved team, and playing well, and we are a good team, and playing well, so man, I think it is going to be a great game. I am looking forward to it,” coach Bronco Mendenhall said, downplaying the revenge element after UVa upset BYU 19-16 last year in Charlottesville.
Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers at No. 21 BYU Cougars
When: September 20, 3:30 PM
Where: Grass of LaVell Edwards Stadium
Spread: BYU -13.5
College Football Week 4 Free Pick Preview – UVa vs BYU
The BYU Cougars (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) and Virginia Cavaliers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) have been two of the more pleasantly surprising teams in the country through three weeks and will square off in a Week 4 contest that could turn out to be a flat-out thriller.
BYU won its third straight game of the season by laying a convincing 33-25 smackdown on Houston this past weekend, although the Cougars failed to cover the college football betting line as a 17-point home favorite to lose it first game against-the-spread.
Virginia enters this matchup feeling pretty good after picking up an absolutely thrilling, (even if it was narrow) 23-21 win against Louisville in its Week 3 matchup that helped them cover the college football betting line as a 4-point home underdog.
"We are for real," Virginia coach Mike London said after the Cavaliers snapped an 11-game losing streak to FBS opponents and a 10-game Atlantic Coast Conference losing streak.
BYU however, is looking for a bit of payback after falling to the Cavs in Charlottesville last year.
"I think we owe them one," BYU safety Dallin Leavitt said
"I don’t know if I want to say revenge, or whatever," BYU quarterback Taysom Hill said. "But I am very excited to play Virginia again. I have watched the tape, and I have watched some of their games on TV, and they have a good defense. It’s a good football team. So it will be a good challenge for us."
With BYU averaging 7.0 points per game more than Virginia while also allowing 6.3 fewer points per game defensively, I think the Cougars are the easy pick to win and cover the college football betting odds in this matchup.
I also like the fact that BYU has played two solid opponents in Texas and Houston after opening up with a cakewalk win over UConn. Virginia was man-handled in its 28-20 season-opening loss against UCLA and hasn’t impressed me nearly as much as BYU has so far this season.
Virginia is 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-0 ATS in their L/4 games against a team with a winning record, but the Cavaliers are also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and a discouraging 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an SU win.
BYU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in the month of September, but the Cougars are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team that hails from the ACC,
I like BYU’s elusive junior quarterback (six rushing TD’s, four passing scores) to lead the Cougars to victory, but I’m thinking the ATS cover goes to Virginia.