College Football Week 9 Lock PicksJosh Bailey
This past Saturday’s college football lock bets may not have seen quite the mayhem of the previous two weeks, but there was still plenty to be excited about in the NCAAF.
The Florida State beat previously undefeated Notre Dame, keeping the Seminoles securely cemented as No. 2 in the National Rankings while sending the Fighting Irish down to lucky 7 in the AP poll.
Baylor’s bowl dreams were all but flushed down the toilet when the Bears were walloped by West Virginia knocking them down to 13 in the AP poll.
Experts have pegged the early favorites in the inaugural FBS playoffs as Mississippi State, the aforementioned FSU, Ole Miss and Auburn and with the next 8 teams in the rankings all as serious contenders to knock one of the favorites off.
The best team in the country is ________. pic.twitter.com/tA7SO9Dh7G
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) October 21, 2014
College Football Week 9 Lock Picks
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers
When: Saturday, Oct. 25 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN 2
Betting Line: Alabama -16.5
Analysis: The 59 to 0 destruction of Texas A&M in Week 8 was exactly the type of game that football handicappers had been expecting out of the Crimson Tide this entire season. The Tide held A&M, one of the best offensive teams in college football to 172 total yards.
It was the best performance by any defense so far in 2014 and the fact that Alabama racked up 602 yards on offense is a sign that the Crimson Tide, essentially, has become the best team in the nation. Expect another powerhouse performance this week since the Tide is going to have to be close to perfect in order to secure a coveted position in the College Football Playoffs.
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 21, 2014
Tennessee is coming around, but they should have no shot in this game. Alabama will win by 20 to 30 points.
Week 9 Lock Pick: Alabama -16.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs
When: Saturday, Oct. 25 at 3:30 pm ET
Betting Line: TCU -21
Analysis: The Horned Frogs had Oklahoma on the ropes in their 33 to 37 home loss to the Sooners three games ago. If TCU had won that contest, they’d be undefeated and in the Top 5.
From an against the spread stand point, the Horned Frogs are undefeated. TCU is an incredible 6 and 0 ATS this season. They’ve covered spreads on the road and at home. At home, they’re as good as it gets. They just beat Oklahoma State, a much better team than Texas Tech, 42 to 9 in Week 8 on the Horned Frogs’ home field.
The Red Raiders are 1 and 5 ATS in their last 6 road games, but 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Is that worrisome? Not at all since Texas Tech’s defense is giving up close to 470 yards per game on offense and 37 points per.
Week 9 Lock Pick: TCU -21
Michigan Wolverines at No. 5 Michigan State Spartans
When: Saturday, Oct. 25 at 3:30 pm ET
Betting Line: Michigan State -17
Analysis: This is an inter-state rivalry game, which means that Michigan could play with a bit more fire than they usually do. But the same holds true for the Spartans and when it comes to actual talent on the field, this one isn’t close.
Michigan is only scoring 21.7 points per game on offense. The Wolverines give up 21.4 points on offense per contest, which is why they are 3 and 4 straight up. They’re also 3 and 4 against the spread the season.
— CFB Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) October 20, 2014
The Spartans are only 4 and 3 against the spread this season, but they’ve dominated this rivalry recently. Michigan State is 6 and 0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two. The favorite is 6 and 2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Spartans are knocking on the door step to the College Football Playoffs. They won’t let a bad performance against the Wolverines derail them.