Early College Football Bowl Season Upset Picks

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Early College Football Bowl Season Upset Picks

My first college football bowl upset picks are for bowls that take place from Dec. 19 to Dec. 22, that way you can bet early and win early. Let’s get started!

The first upset pick bowl is the Cure Bowl between San Jose State and Georgia State. That game kicks off at 7:00 pm ET on Saturday, Dec. 19.

The New Orleans Bowl, which kicks off on Saturday at 9:00 pm ET, is the second game where I see an upset happening.

The final upset game takes place in the Idaho Potato Bowl where Akron faces off against Utah State. Remember that all upsets are moneyline picks.

A Closer Look At My Early College Football Bowl Season Upset Picks

AutoNation Cure Bowl
What: San Jose State Spartans (5-7) at Georgia State Panthers (6-6)
When: Saturday, December 19, 2015
Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET 
Where: Orlando, FL
Stadium: Florida Citrus Bowl
Spread: San Jose State -3.5
Moneyline: San Jose State -164 vs Georgia State +145
Game Total: 57
Watch: CBSSN
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: San Jose State vs Georgia State

Analysis: San Jose State showed some flashes of being a decent team during the regular season. The Aztecs did beat New Mexico, who has a good shot to cover the spread against Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl, 31 to 21 on Oct. 24. The Aztecs also played BYU tough in a 16 to 17 loss on Nov. 3 as a +11.5 point home dog.

But San Jose State finished the season losing 3 out of their final 4 games. That’s a sharp contrast to Georgia State who won its last 4 games. The Panthers also went 6-0-1 against the spread in their final 7 games of the season. Georgia State was the favorite in only one of those games. The Cure Bowl takes place in Orlando, Florida. It’s a long trip for San Jose State fans. Not so much for Georgia State fans. You also have to expect that Georgia State’s players are giddy at the fact that they’re playing in a bowl game. Take the Panthers.

Pick: Georgia State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
What: Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4)
When: Saturday, December 19, 2015
Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET 
Where: New Orleans, LA
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Spread: Lousiana Tech -2
Moneyline: Arkansas State +110 vs Louisiana Tech -130
Game Total: 67
Watch: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech

Analysis: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have the home field advantage in this one. LA Tech also has the more highly regarded QB in Jeff Driskel who passed for 3568 yards and 24 touchdowns during the regular season.

All of it adds up to more than 60% of handicappers believing that Louisiana Tech is the team to back at the -2 odds. I’m going the other way. To me, this game comes down to offensive style. Neither defense is likely to stop the other team’s offense. Louisiana Tech gets most of its yardage through the air while Arkansas State has the 14th ranked ground game in college football. Arkansas State averages 236.7 yards of its 448.9 total yards via the rush. The Red Wolves will control time of possession and leave the Superdome with a New Orleans Bowl victory on Dec. 19.  

Pick: Arkansas State

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
What: Akron Zips (7-5) at Utah State Aggies (6-6)
When: Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET 
Where: Boise, ID
Stadium: Albertsons Stadium
Spread: Utah State -6.5
Moneyline: Akron +210 vs Utah State -250
Game Total: 49
Watch: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Akron vs Utah State

Analysis: After Utah State beat Boise State 52 to 26 on Oct. 16, the Aggies were 4 and 2 both straight up and against the spread. They appeared to be one of the contenders for the Mountain West Conference. It turns out that Boise State wasn’t as good as advertised. The Broncos lost 4 games during the regular season. Utah State lost 6 games total this season including losing 4 out of their last 6.

The Akron Zips, unlike Utah State, won their final 4 games. The Zips went 4 and 0 ATS in those games, covering in 3 games as a favorite of -6.5, -4.5 and -10.5 points. Akron should beat Utah State in the Idaho Potato Bowl.

Pick: Akron