Expert Picks College Football Conference Title WeekJosh Bailey
With conference championship play here and the ensuing bowl season upon us, it’s time for another round of college football expert picks. A trio of conference championship clashes will all be going down this weekend and I’ve got what should amount to a triumvirate of winning picks in each matchup. Now, let’s get down to business.
Expert Picks College Football Conference Title Week
North Texas Mean Green (9-3) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (9-3)
Where: FAU Football Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
When: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 11:00 AM ET
Odds: Florida Atlantic -10.5
A convincing 72% of early public bettors like the FAU Owls to cover the chalk as double-digit favorites in this contest – and it’s easy to see why – considering the fact that Florida Atlantic absolutely crushed North Texas 69-31 at home on October 21 this season. Not only that but when you look at their performance against common opponents, it’s easy to see why everyone like FAU.
North Texas narrowly got by Louisiana Tech 24-23 a month ago while Florida Atlantic routed Tech 48-23. The Mean Green crept by Old Dominion 45-38 while FAU destroyed the Monarchs 58-28. These two Conference USA rivals may have identical records, but they are most certainly not created equal. FAU wins at home to cover the chalk as a double-digit favorite with room to spare!
NCAAF Expert Pick: Florida Atlantic -10.5
No. 25 Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) vs. Boise State Broncos (9-3)
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
When: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 6:45 PM ET
Odds: Boise State -9.5
I have no idea why Boise State is a 10-point favorite to beat Fresno State seeing as how the just lost to the Bulldogs 28-17 on Saturday despite being a 6-point road favorite. Now, with the two rivals set to square off in the Mountain West title game, I’m just not seeing a 10-point win by the Broncos, even if they are playing the conference title tilt at home. While Boise State has the slightly better offense in this matchup, Fresno State has a nearly identical statistical edge defensively. More importantly, the Dogs now know they can beat the Broncos like they just did on Saturday.
Fresno State is a robust 15-3-1 ATS in its last 19 games and Boise State is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. Boise State may get the win at home, but it won’t come by double digits!
NCAAF Expert Pick: Fresno State +9.5
No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (10-1) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers (11-1)
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
When: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 7:00 PM ET
Odds: Clemson -9.5
The Miami Hurricanes just got upset by losing to Pittsburgh 24-14 this past weekend while Clemson blew South Carolina off the field in its 34-10 home win on Saturday, but I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that the Hurricanes are going to show up to give the Tigers a tough way to go in the SEC title tilt before narrowly falling in something of a thriller.
Clemson is statistically better than Miami on both sides of the ball and that the Tigers have a ton of motivation to reach the College Football Playoff for the third straight year. However, Miami isn’t exactly chopped liver and despite their loss to Pitt this past weekend, I think this game looks more like a classic field goal finish than a double-digit win Clemson needs to cover the surprisingly high spread in this one.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I maintain that Tigers quarterback Kelly Bryant is no Deshaun Watson. Clemson wins, but not by 10 points, even though they’ve gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.