Florida State at Miami Betting Odds & PickJosh Bailey
No. 2 ranked Florida State hosts Miami in a key ACC matchup on Saturday. Florida State is only 4 games away from a second undefeated season.
This season it might be even more important for Florida State to go undefeated since the ACC is not considered as being as good as most of the other power conferences. A loss to Miami this Saturday will no doubt keep the Seminoles out of the College Football Playoff. Click here for FBS betting odds.
No. 2 Florida State Seminoles at Miami FL Hurricanes
When: Saturday, Nov. 15 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Betting Line: Florida State -1
Money Line: FSU -130 vs Miami +110
Analyzing FSU vs Miami Bettings Odds & Pick
Yes, Florida State is undefeated, but the team hasn’t played nearly as well this season as it did last season. The Seminoles needed a controversial call in order to beat Notre Dame 31 to 27 and then last week, as a -21 point favorite over one of the lesser teams in the ACC, the Virginia Cavaliers, Florida State simply under performed. They beat Virginia 34 to 20.
In fact, Florida State is easily one of the worst straight up winning teams in college football at covering the spread this season. The Seminoles are only 2 and 7 against the spread. The only covers occurred in a 43 to 3 victory over Wake Forest and a 42 to 31 win over Louisville. The Louisville game was actually one that Florida State could have lost, but the Cardinals’ defense simply got tired at in the second half allowing the Seminoles to win and cover the spread.
Jameis Winston has 10 INTs on passes thrown 10+ yards, tied for the most among Power 5 QBs. (Last season he threw 10 total INTs). #FSUvsMIA
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) November 12, 2014
Florida State’s offense is still great. It’s averaging 450 total yards and 38 points per game, but the defense hasn’t come together just yet. The Seminoles’ defense is allowing 374 yards and 22.4 points per game. Could Miami’s offense take advantage?
Not only could Miami’s offense take advantage, but it should take advantage. The Hurricanes are scoring 33 points per game from 436.9 yards per contest on average. The ‘Canes have a serious playmaker in Duke Johnson who is averaging a stunning 7.7 yards per carry while rushing for a total of 1213 yards. Johnson has also caught 21 passes for 273 yards and he’s scored a combined 11 touchdowns.
Miami also sports one of the best defenses in the nation. It gives up only 312 yards per game on average while allowing teams to score 22 points per game against it. Miami’s D held North Carolina’s offense, one of the best in college football to only 20 points and 258 total yards.
The Hurricanes have gone 4 and 1 against the spread in its last 5 games. It’s covered the spread in 3 straight and Miami is 4 and 1 ATS at home this season. Other trends point to a Miami cover as well.
The ‘Canes are 10 and 1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Florida State is 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 3 and 7 against the spread in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Miami will not be intimidated by Florida State. The Hurricanes are playing better on both defense and offense at this point in the season. They’re the play against the spread.
Pick: Miami FL +1