Florida State vs. Louisville NCAAF Week 10 Expert Football PicksJosh Bailey
Florida State (7-0, 1st in ACC – Atlantic) returns to the football field this Thursday night to battle a very good Louisville (6-2, 3rd in ACC – Atlantic) team. Florida State needed a controversial call during the final seconds in a 31 to 27 victory over Notre Dame in order to remain undefeated. Click here for more NCAAF odds.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 28, 2014
This Thursday night they battle a Louisville team that, although unranked, has won 4 out of their last 5 games straight up and are 6 and 2 ATS this season.
2 Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
When: Thursday, Oct. 30, 7:30 pm ET
Where: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY
Betting Line: Florida State -6.5
Florida State vs. Louisville Expert Football Picks Analysis
Should Jameis Winston be playing? Probably not. And now word comes down that running back Karlos Williams is being investigated for a domestic violence instance that may force FSU to suspend him.
“The athletics department is aware of an investigation by the Tallahassee Police Department involving football student-athlete Karlos Williams,” the school said in a statement. “Until we receive more information regarding the alleged incident his status with the team will be under review.”
Williams was in pads and practicing on Monday in preparation for their Thursday night game at against Louisville. Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher refuted a report the report that Williams would be suspended.
“There’s another false report, and that’s amazing how things happen here,” Fisher said at the time. “Whoever’s got sources and whoever’s got rumors needs to check who they are talking to ’cause that is about as far from the truth as there is. Amazing isn’t it?”
Turnovers could be a key factor in this game because Louisville is very good at causing them. The Cardinals’ Gerald Holliman has 8 interceptions and is tied with Ole Miss’s Senquez Golson for first in the pick-off category. Based on stats, Louisville has the best team in the nation. It’s ranked first in total yards allowed at 245.1 per game, tenth in passing yards allowed at 176.4 per contest, and first in rushing yards allowed at 68.8 yards per game. The Cardinals only allow opponents to score 14.6 points per game on average.
ESPN's FPI gives #1 Florida State a 29% chance of winning out. Do they have what it takes? pic.twitter.com/7Eh2X19zcD
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) October 28, 2014
That’s why Louisville is 6 and 2 ATS this season. It’s because of awesome defensive play. The offense is good enough although not brilliant. The Cardinals average 370 yards and 30 points per matchup. The points arrive because more often than not Louisville’s defense sets up the Cardinals’ offense with terrific field position.
Florida State’s defense hasn’t been very good. The team is undefeated and ranked high enough to garner a spot in the College Football Playoff should the season end today, but with the defense playing the way that it has been, it’s only a matter of time before some team takes advantage and hangs a loss onto the Seminoles. The D is giving up 21.6 points and 374 yards per game on average. That’s not bad until one considers that North Carolina State scored 41 points and Notre Dame scored 27, it should have been 34, against FSU’s defense.
The college football betting trends point to Louisville covering the 6.5 points in this matchup. Louisville is 4 and 1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record, 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 7 and 3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Florida State is a terrible 1 and 7 ATS so far this season. There is no denying how great Winston is on the football field, but the Louisville defense, playing at home, should have answer for Winston and the Florida State offense.
Louisville is the play to cover the spread.
Week 10 College Football Expert Football Pick: Louisville Cardinals +6.5