Free College Football Week 4 Picks – The Upset EditionJosh Bailey
If you like making college football picks that feature value-packed underdogs that have excellent chances of either covering the spread or winning outright as against their favored opponents, then you’re going to be treated to a trio of Week 4 picks that fit that upset billing perfectly.
Let’s get started with an SEC matchup featuring one nationally-ranked team that looks like a prime candidate to get upset by its underdog rival.
Free College Football Week 4 Upset Picks
No. 22 Florida (1-1) at Kentucky (3-0)
When: Saturday, September 23, 2017 at 7:30 PM ET
Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, Kentucky
Odds: Kentucky +1.5
Analysis: No. 22 Florida got a Hail Mary win over Tennessee last weekend, but now I’m thinking Kentucky could hand them a huge loss after seeing the Wildcats and their phenomenal dual-threat quarterback Stephen Johnson spank South Carolina 23-13 last weekend. Florida hasn’t looked very good the last two weeks in getting beat by Michigan 33-17 in their opener and then getting past the Vols on a lucky play.
Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in their last eight SEC games while Florida has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five conference matchups. More importantly, if you haven’t seen the Wildcats’ Johnson in action, then you don’t know what you’re missing. I like Kentucky to snap the nation’s longest singular losing streak by beating the Gators outright for the first time in 30 years.
Free Week 4 Upset Pick: Kentucky +1.5
Notre Dame at Michigan State
When: Saturday, September 23, 2017 at 8:00 PM ET
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Odds: Notre Dame -4
Analysis: Michigan State’s defense has been outstanding to start the season by not allowing a single offensive touchdown in two games. I know that Notre Dame has a gifted dual-threat star in the making in quarterback Brandon Wimbush, but I think the Spartans have the better head coach in this contest, not to mention the fact that they’re playing at home and have a really stingy defense.
More importantly, Notre Dame is a winless 0-8 ATS in their L/8 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams from the Big Ten. Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall while the underdog in this rivalry has gone 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Notre Dame might be slight road favorites, but I say go with the compelling 65 percent of public bettors that like the Spartans to cover the spread!
Free Week 4 Upset Pick: Michigan State +4
Army (2-1) at Tulane (1-2)
When: Saturday, September 23, 2017 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana
Odds: Tulane -2.5
Analysis: Tulane got pounded 56-14 at Oklahoma last week while Army got smacked around at Ohio State in its humbling 38-7 Week 3 loss, but I like the Black Knights to rebound with a great effort to get the outright win against Tulane, thanks to their powerful rushing attack which ranks second in all of college football at 364.7 yards per game. Army has a very heady quarterback in Ahmad Bradshaw and even though they need to improve their passing attack, they’ve also gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams from the AAC while the road team and underdog in this series has gone an identical 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Tulane beat Army by a field goal the last time these two teams met back in 2015, but Army is statistically better on both sides of the ball this season. Back the Army Black Knights to get the ATS cover – by winning outright at Tulane!