The NCAAF odds-makers have listed the Central Michigan Chippewas 27-point underdogs when they visit East Lansing to face the Michigan State Spartans.
Michigan State has won 15 straight non-conference home games against unranked opponents. Good news for the Chippewas is that they were the last team break that trend when they won in East Lansing by a 29-27 score in 2009. The Spartans have won two meetings since, in 2011 and 2012, by a combined 86-14.
How I Am Betting The Central Michigan Chippewas Vs No. 2 Michigan State Spartans College Football Week 4 Spread
What: Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) at No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (3-0)
When: Saturday, Sept 26th, 2015
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
East Lansing, MI
Stadium: Spartan Stadium (MI)
Weather: 67° F/More Sun Than Clouds
Spread: Michigan State -27
Moneyline: Central Michigan +2650 vs Michigan State -5600
Game Total: 54
Watch: Big Ten Network
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Central Michigan Vs Michigan State
Michigan State remained unbeaten by taking out Air Force 35-21 in their Week 3 matchup but the Spartans never came close to cashing in as a huge, 24-point favorite to fall to 0-3 ATS on the season.
The Spartans gave up a whopping 279 rushing yards in the win, but got a stellar performance from quarterback Connor Cook as the strong-armed senior completed 15 of 23 passes for 247 yards and four touchdowns. Michigan State limited Air Force to 3-for-8 efficiency on third downs while forcing three turnovers.
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) September 21, 2015
Central Michigan was on the wrong end of a heartbreaking 30-27 overtime loss to Syracuse in Week 3, though the Chippewas got the ATS win by covering the spread as 8-point underdogs.
Central Michigan forced overtime with a 12-play, 90-yard drive in which junior quarterback Cooper Rush tossed a 27-yard touchdown pass to senior tight end Ben McCord with seven seconds remaining.
Junior kicker Brian Eavey kicked a 20-yard field on the Chippewas’ overtime possession before Syracuse got the ball and won the game on a short TD run.
The Chippewas almost pulled off the comeback after trailing by 14 points at the half. Rush completed 37 of 51 passes for a whopping 430 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss while running back Devon Spalding added 83 rushing yards and one touchdown on 21 carries.
How I Am Betting This Game:
59 percent of public bettors like Michigan State to cover the spread as four-touchdown-plus home favorites, but I like Central Michigan to cover the huge spread based on how they’ve played through three games this season.
The Chippewas gave Oklahoma State a hard way to go before falling 24-13 in their regular season opener and I believe this contest is going to be similarly hard-fought – and approximately as close a finish.
Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an SU loss and an identical 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Michigan State is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in the month of September and haven’t covered the spread so far this season.
The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and an encouraging 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Big Ten football factories. Last but not least, the road team in this inter-state rivalry is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
As far as the Over/Under is concerned, I’m going to go with a pick for the Over, seeing as how Michigan State has allowed 21 points or more in all three of their games this season. The Over is 11-3 in Michigan State’s last 14 games following an SU win and 8-3 in the Spartans’ last 11 home games.
To summarize, I am picking Central Michigan to cover the 27-point spread as underdogs versus the MSU Spartans. My final score prediction is Central Michigan 17, Michigan State 42.