TCU throttled SMU in their 56-37 Week 3 blowout. The Horned Frogs failed to cover the spread as huge, 37-point home favorites. Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin completed 21 of 30 passes for a whopping 454 yards with five touchdowns and one interception while carrying the ball 11 times for an additional 50 yards and one score. Running back Aaron Green added 164 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries.
Texas Tech moved to 3-0 on the season by beating Arkansas 35-24 in Week 3 to cash in as a 9.5-point road dog as quarterback Pat Mahomes II completed 26 of 30 passes for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Mahomes II also added 58 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries to lead the Red Raiders to victory.
How I Am Betting The #3 TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAAF Week 4 Line
What: No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0)
When: Saturday, Sept 26th, 2015
Kickoff: 4:45 PM ET
Where: Lubbock, TX
Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium
Weather: 82° F/Scattered Clouds
Spread: TCU -8.5
Moneyline: TCU -325 vs Texas Tech +265
Game Total: 80.5
Stream: FOX Sports Go
Listen: TCU Vs Texas Tech
54 percent of the betting public likes TCU to cover the spread and I agree. After opening as a 9.5-point favorite, the spread is down to seven (7) points, making TCU even more attractive to me.
The Horned Frogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. While the Texas Tech has gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games, the Red Raiders are also just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Home team in this Big 12 rivalry is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings, but I like Trevone Boykin and company to shut the pie hole of idiotic Tech head coach Cliff Kingsbury.
As far as the Over/Under is concerned, 62 percent of public bettors like the Over. While I’m not real fond of the high, 79.5-point O/U Total, I do believe the Over is the right call here, seeing as how two of the last three meetings between these teams have topped the 100-point plateau, including last season’s insane 82-27 home blowout by TCU.
The Over is 9-3 in TCU’s last dozen games following an SU win and 8-3 in the Horned Frogs last 11 conference games. The Over is also 4-0 in Texas Tech’s last four home games and 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ last five games in September.
In summary, I am picking TCU to beat and cover the spread versus Texas Tech. My final score prediction is TCU 49, Texas Tech 35.