The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks’s trip to Tuscaloosa is even more daunting after Alabama’s second straight loss to Ole Miss. The Warhawks did come away with a 21-14 win in Tuscaloosa in 2007. That was eight years ago and the lowest point in Crimson Tide history. A convincing bounce back win can get Bama back in the College Football Playoff discussion, but barely.
The college football odds-makers have listed 12th-ranked Bama as favored by 38-points to beat UL-Monroe. The game total is 55.5-points.
Can UL-Monroe’s spread offense (which Alabama just faced against Ole Miss, but at a higher level) upset the Crimson Tide for a second week in a row? Should you bet on Bama to cover the spread? Or is Louisiana-Monroe the smart bet?
Alabama welcomes Louisiana-Monroe back to Tuscaloosa for the first time since the Tide hit rock bottom in 2007. http://t.co/e3TUiqsigV
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) September 23, 2015
How I Am Betting The UL Monroe Warhawks Vs No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide College Football Week 4 Line
What: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (1-1) at No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1)
When: Saturday, Sept 26th, 2015
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET
Where: Tuscaloosa, AL
Stadium: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Weather: 84 °F/Scattered Clouds
Spread: Alabama -38
Moneyline: UL Monroe +15000 vs Alabama -45000
Game Total: 55.5
Watch: SEC Network
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Louisiana Monroe Vs Alabama
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Alabama was on the wrong end of a 43-37 home loss against Mississippi, tough the contest wasn’t nearly s close as the final score suggests. In spite of a furious second half comeback attempt, the Tide couldn’t overcome huge 30-10 and 43-24 deficits.
After Jake Coker started the first two games at quarterback, Cooper Bateman got the first start of his Alabama career against Ole Miss on Saturday. Unfortunately, an ineffective Bateman was relieved after completing 11 of 14 passes for 87 yards with one interception.
Coker however, almost helped the Tide complete their comeback by completing 21 of 45 passes for 201 yards with three touchdowns, though he did toss two costly interceptions in the loss.
Alabama, which also lost to Mississippi a year ago, had never lost two in a row to Ole Miss and was 25-1 in Tuscaloosa before falling on Saturday. The loss snapped Alabama’s 17-game home winning streak.
"Well, this is a little disappointing," Alabama coach Nick Saban said. "We talked to the players on Friday. We thought last year when we played we gave some things away, and I really don’t want to take anything away from Ole Miss. They played a really good game. But are you going to be a giver, or are you going to be a taker? And I think if you are going to be a great competitor, you’ve got to take what you want."
It was a dark day but “thank goodness that happened.” How a humiliating loss to La-Monroe spurred Bama to greatness: http://t.co/ZK0qwN7aB2
— Alex Scarborough (@AlexS_ESPN) September 23, 2015
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks got their first win of the season on September 12 by routing Nicholls State 47-0 to cash in as insane 39.5-point home favorites just one week after getting routed by Georgia 51-14 in their regular season opener.
Starting quarterback Garrett Smith completed 26 of 33 passes for 370 yards with three touchdowns in the win. Through two games, Smith has completed 79 percent of his passes for 576 yards with five touchdowns, and only one interception.
How To Bet This Game:
A convincing 68 percent of the betting public likes Alabama to cover the spread as four-touchdown-plus home favorites and I agree.
UL-Monroe doesn’t have anywhere near the talent level in order to compete with Alabama and the Warhawks’ 51-14 blowout loss against Georgia three weeks ago leads me to believe they’re going down and going down hard in this Week 4 mismatch.
UL-Monroe is 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an SU win and an even more discouraging 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of September. While Alabama has compiled a bunch f discouraging ATS trends like their 6-14-1 ATS mark in their last 21 games and 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven home games, I say Alabama goes all out in order to get the SU win and narrow ATS cover.
65 percent of the betting public also likes the Over in this contest and so do I, particularly since I believe Alabama could reach the 50-point plateau all by themselves. The Over is 15-6 in UL-Monroe’s last 21 games against SEC teams and 27-12-1 in the Warhawks’ last 40 games against a team with a winning record. The Over is also 5-1 in Alabama’s last six games and 4-1 in the Crimson Tide’s last five home games.
I am picking Louisiana-Monroe to cover the gargantuan 38-point spread against Bama. My final score prediction is Louisiana-Monroe 14, Alabama 49.