The undefeated and 9.5-point underdog Illinois Fighting Illini travel to Chapel Hill to face the 1 and 1 North Carolina Tar Heels. This NCAA football week 3 game kicks off this Saturday, Sept 19th at noon ET on ABC and will be streamed live via Watch ESPN.
Betting Trends That Influenced My Opinion:
- North Carolina Tar Heels 2-3 At Home since last season
- North Carolina Tar Heels 1-3 As Favorite since last season
- Illinois Fighting Illini 1-0 When Line was 62 to 66 since last season
- North Carolina Tar Heels 1-2 As Home Favorite since last season
- North Carolina Tar Heels 2-3 O-U At Home since last season
- North Carolina Tar Heels 5-6 O-U When Line is >60 since last season
- North Carolina Tar Heels 1-2 O-U When Line was 62 to 66 since last season
- Illinois Fighting Illini 1-4 O-U vs Teams Averaging 25 to 32 PPG since last season
- North Carolina Tar Heels 3-5 O-U vs Teams Averaging 25 to 32 PPG since last season
A Comprehensive Analysis Of The Illinois Fighting Illini Vs UNC Tar Heels NCAA Football Week 3 Odds, Expert Pick & How To Watch
What: Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0) at North Carolina Tar Heels (1-1)
When: Saturday, Sept 19th, 2015
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
Where: Chapel Hill, NC
Stadium: Kenan Stadium
Weather: 83°F/ More Sun Than Clouds
Wind: Southeast 4mph
Spread: North Carolina -9.5
Moneyline: Illinois +315 vs North Carolina -380
Game Total: 64
Watch: ABC/ESPN/ESPN 2
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Illinois Vs North Carolina
Why Bet On Illinois to Beat North Carolina (-10)
This will be the Illini D’s first test this season.
After getting rid of their coach shortly before the season started, many felt that the Illini would have problems in their football games this season. No such issues have occurred. Illinois has been spectacular in 2 games. They haven’t beaten any teams of note, but they’ve looked very good on both sides of the ball.
What’s been really impressive is how Illinois’ defense has played. In Week 1 versus Kent State, Illinois dominated 52 to 3. The Illini D held Kent State to 245 total yards. Kent State could manage only 1.5 yards per average on the ground. Kent State rushed the ball 39 times for 59 yards. Kent State passed for only 186 yards.
In Illinois’ second game versus I-AA Western Illinois, the Illini D dominated again. Illinois beat Western Illinois 44 to 0. Illinois held Western Illinois to a total of 141 yards. Western Illinois rushed the ball 30 times for 98 yards. That’s a 3.3 yards per average rush. Western Illinois completes 11 of 24 passes for 43 yards. That’s a 1.8 yards per average on each of their passes. If the Illini defense comes to play versus North Carolina’s offense, they’ll have a shot at the straight up win.
Why Bet On North Carolina (-10) to Beat Illinois
QB Marquise Williams can exploit the Illinois defense.
QB Marquise Williams is the reason that North Carolina lost to South Carolina in Week 1. Williams completed only 19 of 31 passes. He threw for 232 yards. He threw a TD. But he also threw 3 interceptions. Williams simply didn’t have it.
He got some great tweets from NFL players like Peyton Manning who told him to keep his head up. Williams responded with a beautiful game against I-AA North Carolina A&T. He completed 15 of 20 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception. He also rushed for 53 yards on 4 carries and scored a TD with his legs.
— Charlotte Observer (@theobserver) September 14, 2015
If Williams has as much success versus Illinois’ defense as he did versus North Carolina’s A&T’s D, the Tar Heels should win this game straight up. Covering the spread may be more difficult for North Carolina to do in this matchup.
As good as Williams can be, he doesn’t play defense. North Carolina’s defense gave up 2 touchdowns to North Carolina A&T. Counting on the D to hold down an Illinois offense that averages 421 yards and 48 points a game will be difficult to do. I am picking the Tar Heels to win by a field goal. Bet the Illini plus the points. My final score prediction is North Carolina 24, Illinois 21.