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Iron Bowl Betting – Can No.4 Auburn Dethrone Top Ranked Alabama?

Alabama has absolutely rampaged the college ranks this season, but have fallen to a hefty portion of massive spreads. They’re 6-4-1 ATS despite being undefeated straight up, and comically pushed last week in a 49-0 win over Chattanooga as -49.0 home favorites. To date, only three schools – Texas A&M, LSU and Tennessee – have scored double digits on this stingy defense and nobody has been able to slow down A.J. McCarron’s offense. But Auburn just might.

There’s reason to believe that Alabama is vulnerable for one reason: they haven’t been challenged full tilt for over two months. Texas A&M gave them a serious run in a 49-42 victory for Nick Saban, but since then it’s been a gong show for the Tide. This speaks to Alabama’s dominance as much as anything, but when you go so long without facing the best teams in the country, you can fall in to a bit of a lull. The same thing happened to Oregon as they vanquished their Pac-12 schedule until losing to Stanford in embarrassing fashion.

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) vs. #4 Auburn Tigers (10-1)
The Alabama Crimson Tide are -10.5 point favorites over the Auburn Tigers in the NCAAF rivalry weekend.
Starts: 11/30/2013 3:30PM
Jordan-Hare Stadium, 251 South Donahue Dr.
Auburn, Alabama


And Auburn has been on an undeniable tear all season, going 10-1 SU while building a huge betting bandwagon thanks to a 9-2 ATS record. Their last failed cover was in a 24-20 win over Mississippi State as -6.5 favorites, while their lone loss came a week later when they were blown out by LSU. That defeat came at a great time, however, as it completely invigorated the team. Since then they’ve gone 8-0 SU and ATS and have capitalized on upsets to earn the fourth spot in the BCS standings. This whole squad understood that another loss would bury them in the SEC and they got down to business.

Where the Tigers are strong is in their rushing game, which ranks second in the country. It’s all built around Nick Marshall, their dynamic quarterback who has thrown for just 1,530 yards and 9 touchdowns but has also rushed for 1,153 yards and 17 scores on the ground. At 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, he’s no Cam Newton, but he’s a proven clock killer and a dynamic threat that evades the rush well and finds the endzone routinely. He isn’t the dual threat that Johnny Manziel is, but he’s a legitimate playmaker, even against the best defense in the country.


Fri, Nov 29 2013
LSU -24.5
Fri, Nov 29 2013
Fresno State
San Jose State
SJSU +28.5
Fri, Nov 29 2013
South Florida
Central Florida
UCF -27
Sat, Nov 30 2013
Baylor -13
Sat, Nov 30 2013
Ohio State
OSU -14.5

Many college football betting enthusiasts will point at the near-loss Auburn experienced last week against Georgia. The Tigers survived a heart stopper last week thanks to a miracle tip catch that went 75 yards for the game deciding score, but you can’t discredit how good Georgia was, especially since they were at full strength. If Auburn could withstand an onslaught from Murray’s Bulldogs – who were one of the top ranked teams in the preseason until injuries killed them early on – they have the stuff to expose any potential cracks in Alabama’s defense.

Grading Auburn’s defense is a bit tough but some SEC matchups help shed some light on the subject. They allowed 17 points on the road against Arkansas, who were held to a shutout when they played the Tide. The Tigers also surrendered 23 points against Tennessee, who managed to score just 10 points when they visited Alabama. On the season, Auburn has given up 22.0 points per game but they excel at generating turnovers in the secondary, which could be problematic since the Tide love to air it out with McCarron.

It’s no secret that Auburn will need a miracle to beat Alabama. It took one to get them past Georgia last weekend. On the grand stage of the Iron Bowl, Auburn will most certainly keep this game competitive. I’m concerned that Alabama won’t be fully prepared for this one as they’ve had nothing but cake walks for the last handful of games. Auburn isn’t just the biggest threat they’ve faced since narrowly beating the Aggies. They’re also the type of offensive team that Alabama struggles against. That’s why you almost have to take them as home dogs in Iron Bowl betting this weekend. Get ready for the best game of the year.

Iron Bowl Betting Free Pick – Auburn +10.5