ATS Analysis College Football Championship Week

LSU vs Bama Spread & ATS Pick

Can No. 19 LSU Pull Off Huge Upset Over top-Ranked Alabama in Week 10 SEC Showdown?

If you’re betting on Saturday’s week 1 SEC showdown between the LSU Tigers and top-ranked Alabama crimson Tide, then there’s only two questions you need answered.

First, will the Tigers be able to pull off the huge upset or will they fall to their longtime SEC rivals for the seventh straight time dating back to 2012?

Second, will LSU at least be able to cover the chalk as a three-touchdown road dog?

Let’s find out now what’s likely to go down when these two hook up at Bryant-Denny Stadium at 8:00 PM ET with this matchup airing on CBS.

LSU vs Alabama Spread & ATS Pick

No. 19 LSU Tigers (6-2) at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0)
When: Saturday, November 4, 2017 at 8:00 PM ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Spread: Alabama -21.5
Total: 48.5

Why Bet the LSU Tigers Spread at +21.5

Y spread represents the largest betting line between the two teams in over a decade. Second, the Tigers have covered the chalk in two straight while winning three straight and four of their last five games overall. There’s also the fact that LSU has a pretty good defense that ranks 27th nationally in points allowed (20.0 ppg). Last but not least, the Tigers had their best game of the season two weeks ago and their second-highest scoring total of season in their 40-24 blowout win over Ole Miss as a 6.5-point road favorite in Week 8.

Why Bet the Alabama Crimson Tide Spread at -21.5

Why bet on top-ranked Alabama? Well, there’s the fact that the Crimson Tide crushed Tennessee 45-7 two weeks ago to cover the chalk as an incomprehensible 36.5-point favorite, (contrary to my pick otherwise). There’s also the fact that Alabama has scored 41 points or more in every game this season except two. There’s also the fact that the Tide have covered the spread in each of the last four meetings against LSU, including last season’s 10-0 shutout win as a 7-point road favorite.

LSU vs Bama ATS Pick

Look, I’m just about done going up against the Tide after they crushed Tennessee in Week 8 to cover the spread as an insane 36.5-point home favorite. Alabama ranks first in points allowed (9.8 ppg) and this season, a stellar fifth in scoring (43.0 ppg).

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While LSU has gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, the Tigers are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record while Alabama has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games. I really don’t trust LSU quarterback Danny Etling and you shouldn’t either.

Call me crazy, but I just don’t see the Tigers covering the spread in this one. Alabama wins and covers the spread in a contest that won’t be as close as it should be between two nationally-ranked teams.

ATS Pick: Alabama -21.5