LSU vs Ole Miss Spread & Free PickJosh Bailey
Can Ole Miss old Down the Fort to get Week 8 Upset Over No. 24 LSU?
After exploding on SEC opponents last weekend, the Ole Miss rebels will look to hold down the fort and pull off the home upset over No. 24 LSU when they host their longtime conference rivals in their Week 8 SEC showdown on Saturday.
If you want to know whether the Rebels have what it takes to either win outright or cover the college football betting spread as touchdown home dogs, then let’s get to my expert analysis and prediction.
LSU Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels Odds & Free Pick
LSU Tigers (5-2) at Ole Miss Rebels (3-3)
When: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 7:15 PM ET
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Stream: Watch ESPN
Spread: LSU -7
Why Bet the LSU Tigers Spread at -7
The Tigers have won two straight and three of their last four games but come into this Week 8 matchup off a narrow 27-23 win over Auburn last weekend in which they failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Quarterback Danny Etling completed 13 of 24 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown on 13 of 24 passing while running back Derrius Guice and Russell Gage each rushed for 71 yards in the win. Backup running back Stephen Sullivan added a one-yard rushing score on his only carry and the Tigers held Auburn to just 3-for-14 success on third downs. Defensively, LSU sacked Jason Stidham three times and harassed the Auburn signal-caller into a dismal 9-for-26 passing day.
LSU shut Auburn out after giving up 17 first-quarter points and six points in the second quarter. The Tigers rank second in the SEC in passes defended and sacks and fifth in passing yards allowed. Only Syracuse has passed for more than 180 yards against the Tigers this season.
"They know the stakes are high for us as a football team," LSU head coach Ed Orgeron said of his cornerbacks. "They know the stakes are high for them as individuals, especially going against the great receivers that Ole Miss has."
LSU averages 25.6 points per game (85th) while allowing 19.4 points per contest defensively (26th).
Why Bet the Ole Miss Rebels Spread at +7
Ole Miss ‘opened up a can of whup-ass’ on Vanderbilt in their 57-35 beatdown of the Commodores last weekend. Quarterback Shea Patterson completed 22 of 35 passes for 351 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while running back Jordan Wilkins rushed 18 carries for 113 yards and one score. Now, the Rebels will look to record consecutive wins and move above .500 after bagging their first SEC win of the season. The Rebels’ high-scoring ways clearly have the attention of LSU’s head coach.
"They’ve got one of the best quarterbacks that we’re going to face in the country in Shea Patterson," LSU’s Orgeron said of Ole Miss. "Probably the best group of receivers we’ve seen."
Conversely, Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke said he knows stopping LSU’s rushing attack will be one of his team’s top priorities.
"You’ve got to stop Guice. That’s first," Luke said. "They do a good job with their speed sweep motions to different people. If you load the box up, they’ll hurt you with the speed sweeps. They’ve got some guys who can beat you on the perimeter. But the big focus is stopping Guice."
Ole Miss averages an impressive 31.8 points per game (47th) but allows an overly generous 37.0 points per contest defensively (116th).
LSU vs Ole Miss Free Pick
Ole Miss can score the ball with almost anyone, but they’ve got a defense that often looks like Swiss cheese. Still, LSU isn’t very explosive offensively and the Rebels are kind of desperate right now.
While I’m not seeing an Ole Miss outright win at home, I’m thinking this matchup is closer to a classic field goal finish than the near touchdown spread it currently is – and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Ole Miss managed to win outright.
While LSU has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of October, the Rebels are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Ole Miss has gone an encouraging 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record and the home team in this SEC rivalry is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. I’ve got Ole Miss covering the spread and I say don’t be completely surprised if they pull off the outright upset win!
Pick: Ole Miss +7