Michigan State is not going to make it to the Big Ten Championship.
The loss to Ohio State means that Michigan State will not win the Big Ten East. The college football week 14 betting line has the Michigan State Spartans as 13 point favorites over Penn State.
But MSU does have something to play for. Even though they will not get into the College Football Playoff, they could very well end up playing on New Year’s Day. That actually means something since Michigan State would like nothing more than to represent the Big Ten while facing a tough opponent from the SEC or Pac 12. For Penn State, beating Michigan State means another move forward after the Sandusky scandal.
No. 11 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions
When: Saturday, Nov. 29 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
Betting Line: Michigan State -13
Analyzing The Michigan State at Penn State Week 14 Betting Line
Up until the loss to Ohio State, the Spartans were favored to win the National Championship. The thinking was that Michigan State would win out, including putting a beating on the Buckeyes and taking down Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and that would be enough to sway the judges.
It didn’t turn out that way. Michigan State imploded and ended up getting drilled at home versus Ohio State. It was the second loss this season where the Spartans looked to be in control only to get beat. Versus Oregon in Week 2, Michigan State had a lead at half time. The Ducks stormed back to beat the Spartans by 19 points. Maybe, Michigan State folds under pressure. It sure looks that way.
It’s unlikely that Penn State will provide Michigan State with too much pressure in this game on Saturday. The Nittany Lions go into this contest off of a 14 to 16 loss to Illinois as a -5 point road favorite. Penn State is only averaging 334 yards and 24 points per game. That pales in comparison to Michigan State who averages 514.5 yards and 43.9 points per game.
What Penn State does have going for it is its defense. The Nittany Lions defense has turned into one of the best in the nation. Hard to believe, but Penn State’s D is as close to being as lock down as possible. The Nittany Lions are only allowing a total of 267.2 yards, ranking it third in the nation, and 16.2 points per game. Even Ohio State could only put up 31 and beat Penn State by 7 points.
The trends give Penn State a shot to score an against the spread upset in this matchup. The Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. They’re also 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games following a straight up loss and Michigan State is 2 and 5 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two in Beaver Stadium.
The Spartans should cover this spread, but Penn State’s defense is very good against the run, it allows only 81.7 yards, ranking it first in college football, and the run is Michigan State’s bread and butter. If the Nittany Lions can control RB Jeremy Langford, they’ll be able to keep this game close.