College Football Week 5 Upset Picks

Michigan Wolverines Vs Florida Gators Citrus Bowl Odds & Final Score Predictions

The Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl is one of only two bowl games played on New Year’s Eve or Day that isn’t one of the New Year’s Six decided by the College Football Playoff committee, the Citrus Bowl will continue its lengthy history with another matchup between the Big Ten and SEC.

The game kicks off on New Year’s Day at the Orlando Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. The Fourteenth-ranked Michigan Wolverines face the nineteenth-ranked Florida Gators in what should be a great matchup between two rookie coaches. Kick-off is at 1:00 pm ET.

Founded as the Tangerine Bowl in 1947, it wasn’t until 1983 that the game became known as the Florida Citrus Bowl. After a 12-year stint as the Capital One Bowl, it became the Citrus Bowl once again last year when Buffalo Wild Wings took over as the title sponsor.

A Closer Look At How To Bet The Michigan Wolverines Vs Florida Gators Citrus Bowl Odds & My Final Score Predictions

The college football Citrus Bowl odds favor the Michigan Wolverines by 3.5-points to beat the Florida Gators. If you are betting the moneyline straight up, Michigan pays 100 on 188 while Florida pays 155 on 100. The game total opened at 42.5 and quickly dove down to 39 where it now stands.

What: Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Who: No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (9-3) at No. 19 Florida Gators (10-3)
When: Friday, January 1, 2016
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Orlando, FL
Stadium: Florida Citrus Bowl
Spread: Michigan -3.5
Moneyline: Michigan -188 vs Florida +155
Game Total: 41
Watch: ABC
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Michigan vs Florida

Bet The Michigan Wolverines -3.5 Because…

Michigan will get better quarterback play in this game out of Jake Rudock than Florida will get out of Treon Harris. Rudock isn’t the best QB in the nation. Heck, he’s probably not even the best QB in the QB starved Big 10. But, he’s efficient and he runs Jim Harbaugh’s pro-style offense efficiently well. Rudock has passed for 17 touchdown passes. He’s thrown 9 picks, but he’s completed over 64% of his passes. This is in contrast to Treon Harris who completes only 51.9% of his passes and has thrown 9 touchdown passes to 5 interceptions.

Bet The Florida Gators +3.5 Because…

The Gators’ defense is better than Michigan’s. Although Michigan’s defense looked great early in the season, the Gators’ defense is the one that improved later on in the season. Florida’s defense allows a ridiculously low 295.4 total yards per game. This includes allowing 174.2 passing yards and 121.2 rushing yards per game. Opponents average only 16.5 points per game against Florida.

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

The Michigan Wolverines are an average team against the spread (6-6). The Florida Gators have performed well against the spread going 8-5, +250.

The Wolverines are averaging 30.6 over their past 12 games. The Florida Gators are averaging 24.5 in that same time period. 

Michigan Wolverines games have gone over more than under with an O-U record of 7-5. Florida Gators games have trended under with a record of 8 under and 5 over.

Michigan gave up 42 points to Ohio State in their 13 to 42 loss to the Buckeyes in the Wolverines final game of the season. Unfortunately, Florida Coach Jim McElwain doesn’t have the offense to take advantage of Michigan’s suddenly porous defense. QB Treon Harris is so bad that he puts the Gators’ in horrible positions often times in this game. Smart, good, quality offenses end up wearing out the Gators’ awesome defense. Expect that to happen in the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1.  

My final score prediction is Michigan 18, Florida 16.