My, how the tables have turned.
What once looked like a ‘lock alert’ kind of matchup for the Mississippi State Bulldogs has turned into a contest that they’re no longer even favored to win. The college football week 12 betting line favors Arkansas by a field-goald to beat Miss State.
Such is life in the powerful SEC these days. Now, with Arkansas on fire and Mississippi State looking to regain is footing, let’s find out which one of these big-time bowl game hopefuls is going to bring home the bacon.
A Closer Look At The Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Line & My Pick
What: Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-3) at Arkansas Razorbacks (6-4)
When: Saturday, November 21, 2015
Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET
Where: Fayetteville, AR
Stadium: Razorback Stadium
Weather: 45° F | Afternoon Clouds
Spread: Arkansas -3.5
Moneyline: Mississippi State +155 vs Arkansas -175
Game Total: 57
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Mississippi State vs Arkansas
Bet The Mississippi State Bulldogs at +3 Because…
The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS as an underdog or PK since last season.
There are two good reasons to wager on Mississippi State in this Week 12 contest. The first reasons is that the Bulldogs have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in gifted dual-threat signal-caller Dak Prescott. The second reasons is…that they’ve got Dak Prescott too!
Seriously though, Prescott is so talented he’s basically single-handedly carried the Bulldogs all season long. Unfortunately, one man wasn’t nearly enough to overcome the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide in Mississippi State’s humbling 31-6 Week 11 smackdown at the hands of the Tide.
Prescott completed 22 of 43 passes for 300 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass while getting limited to just 14 rushing yards on a whopping 26 carries and getting sacked a whopping nine times.
"I don’t know if they were doing anything special but just beating guys up there," Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. "I don’t think we did a great job of protecting the quarterback. One of the things you want to do is protect the quarterback to be able to throw the football. We still threw for over 300 yards."
The Bulldogs also got overwhelmed by Alabama running back derrick Henry en route to 204 rushing yards and two scores.
"As far as moving the ball and getting to the red zone, we did pretty good," Mississippi State receiver Fred Ross said. "It was once we got there we stalled, and against a great team like Alabama that can not happen."
Mississippi State ranks 51st in scoring (31.8 ppg) and a stellar 19th in points allowed (18.6 ppg).
Bet The Arkansas Razorbacks at -3 Because…
The Razorbacks (6-4, 4-2 SEC) have won 4 straight games regardless of locale and 5 of their last 6, capped by consecutive road victories over Ole Miss and LSU.
Arkansas has gotten hot at just the right time, winning four straight games, including their stunning 31-14 Week 11 beatdown over former national title contending LSU.
Razorbacks signal-caller Brandon Allen completed 9 of 16 passes for 141 yards with one touchdown and one interception but it was running back Alex Collins that led the way to victory by rushing for 141 yards and two scores on just 16 carries.
"Alex responds to challenges, man," Bielema said. "He’s a fighter. I love him to death, a kid who I think is giving us his all every day, every way. I jumped him pretty hard (after that fumble). I said ‘Either get your mind right or we’re going to find another option.’"
The Razorbacks also held LSU star running back Leonard Fournette to just 91 rushing yards in the win and kept elusive quarterback Brandon Harris in check for the majority of the game as well.
"I thought we did a nice job of keeping (Harris) in the pocket, and if he did escape, he didn’t escape for free yardage," Arkansas coach Bret Bielema said. "That was fun to watch."
Arkansas is ranked 34th in scoring (34.4 ppg) and 73rd in points allowed (27.9 ppg).
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction
When the 2015 season got started, I had really high hopes for Arkansas, but they got out of the gate in horrific fashion to derail any hopes of winning an SEC title. However, the Razorbacks now look like the team I though they would this season which is why I think they’re a virtual lock to take down Dak Prescott and the one-dimensional Bulldogs in this contest.
While Mississippi State has gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference games, the Bulldogs are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an SU loss of more than 20 points.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and an incendiary 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a winning road record.
With the Home team in this SEC rivalry going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings and Mississippi State going 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against the Razorbacks, I’m thinking this Week 12 matchup is a virtual lock!