Mississippi State VS Alabama Line & PickNoah Williams
Another year of Alabama being an almost unanimous top-rated college football team has them a heavy college football spread favorite hosting Mississippi State. The game kicks-off on Saturday, November 12th at Noon ET from Bryant-Denny Stadium in good ol’ Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Week 11’s college football line favors Bama by 29-points.
Mississippi State isn’t a bad team as 4-5 straight up as well as against the spread, but it is tough when you are compared to the Alabama Crimson Tide. They are obviously unbeaten at 9-0 and still a more impressive 7-2 record ATS this season because college football bettors tend to inflate the Crimson Tide betting line.
Mississippi State VS Alabama Line & Pick
The NCAA football betting line opened with Alabama as a -29 point home favorite and stayed within a point of that back and forth. The over under betting total opened at 57 and has come down to 55.5 since that time which is mostly due to Alabama’s consistently great defense.
What: Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5) at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0)
When: Saturday, November 12, 2016
Start Time: 12:00 PM ET
Where: Tuscaloosa, AL
Stadium: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Spread: Alabama -29
Moneyline: Miss State +3375 Vs Bama -8000
Game Total: 54.5
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Mississippi State vs Alabama
Bet on Mississippi State -29 Because…
The Bulldogs always seem to a big buffer in the betting line when traveling to play Alabama, and they usually take advantage of it. They are 1-0 against the spread in the only other time they have played in Alabama the last 3 years, and showing longevity and a trend they are 8-4 ATS since 1992 when played at Alabama.
In nearly every major statistical category, Mississippi State ranks sixth or lower in the SEC. But coach Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs do field the No. 4 rushing offense in the league with an average of nearly 227 yards per game and 5.4 per carry. Mississippi State pulled off one of the stunners of last weekend by upsetting then-No. 4 Texas A&M 35-28.
Bet on Alabama +29 Because…
They will win by at least a touchdown more than 29. The main statistic that catches my eye as proof is the Tide are 5-1 against the college football betting line this year when playing on grass! Everything else is just gravy and supports this in some way.
The Crimson Tide seems to always have close to the best NCAA Football defense (they are 2nd right now) every year, and against the run they actually are number 1 giving up only 66 brutal yards per game. After you add their pass defense which is number 19 in the FBS standings you can understand how they have held 6 of their 8 opponents to 10 points or less. GOOD LUCK against these guys!
Just for the record, ‘Bama has won the last eight games in the series, with seven of the wins by double digits. The lone exception was two years ago in Tuscaloosa when the Tide beat the Bulldogs 25-20.
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction
Truthfully, I am shocked this College Football spread hasn’t gone way up since opening considering it is Alabama that is favored and they are at home. You can bet that 29-point betting line in this will go up, although I can’t predict how much.
Mississippi State just doesn’t have anything on their team that is solid or sexy or noteworthy really. The Bulldogs have an overall defensive rank of 75 and an overall offensive rank of 44. Neither one of these is going to keep them from getting crushed by Saban’s crew of killers.