Must Bet College Football Week 10 Upset PicksJosh Bailey
It’s becoming a recurring theme in college football betting week in and week out. Another top-five team lost this weekend to a lower ranked team as the Ole Miss Rebels lost 10-7 to Les Miles’ LSU Tigers in Death Valley after a couple of regrettable decisions by head coach Hugh Freeze and quarterback Bo Wallace.
Word came out after the game that coach Les Miles’ 91-year-old mother’s had passed hours before kickoff. “I had a rough night last night,” Miles admitted, later adding, “Martha Miles, this is a great night, considering. I miss you, mom.”
— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) October 26, 2014
Miles will always have a soft spot for Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, who allowed Miles to use his personal plane to fly home on the Friday before the game, attend his father’s funeral and return to the team on Sunday before the game.
“I buried my father that weekend,” Miles recalled. “And Jerry Jones was just tremendously graceful in traveling me back home to see my father and mother, my father who passed.”
Keep reading for this week’s top upset plays. All the upset picks deserve a look on the money line if the wager is offered. Click here for more week 10 college football upset odds.
College Football Week 10 Upset Picks
No.2 Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
When: Thursday, Oct. 30 at 7:30 pm ET
Betting Line: Florida State -6.5
Analysis: The Seminoles are 1 and 7 against the spread in their last 8 games overall. Louisville should definitely cover the spread in this game, but, more importantly, the defense that Jameis Winston and Florida State face on Thursday night is absolutely loaded.
Louisville’s defense is ranked first in college football. It gives up only 245.1 yards per game. The Cardinals held Clemson, who has one of the best offenses in the nation, to a ridiculous 229 total yards. Opponents average only 14.6 points against the Cardinals while the Louisville offense scores 30.9 per.
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) October 27, 2014
Should Florida State win this matchup? Absolutely, they should but the money line is going to be juicy and the Seminoles got lucky at home against a Notre Dame defense that’s not as good as Louisville’s.
Pick: Louisville Cardinals
Stanford Cardinal at No. 5 Oregon Ducks
When: Saturday, Nov. 1 at 7:30 pm ET
Betting Line: Oregon -11
Analysis: Oregon is now up to a fifth place ranking in the AP Polls. Make no mistake, the team is talented on offense, but one has to question exactly how good the defense is. Sure, as long as Oregon continues to play teams that they know they can outscore, that don’t have any defenses, like California, they’re going to be successful.
Stanford & Oregon 3-0 each vs. Pac-12 North this year. Other four teams are combined 2-8 vs. division. Five days to kickoff. #StanfordOregon
— Stanford Football (@StanfordFball) October 27, 2014
But Stanford can score, 25.6 points per game on average, and has the second best defense in college football based on yards allowed. The Cardinal only give up 250.6 yards and 12.5 points per game. If the Stanford coaches call a smart game, if they keep the ball out of Oregon Ducks’ QB Marcus Mariotta’s hands by rushing for 3.4 yards and a cloud of dust on every play, they could upset Oregon on the road.
Pick: Stanford Cardinal
No. 14 Arizona Wildcats at No. 25 UCLA Bruins
When: Saturday, Nov. 1 at 10:30 pm ET
Betting Line: UCLA -4.5
Analysis: The Bruins are favored in this contest only because they take on Arizona at home. If this game were in Tucson, Arizona would probably be at least a -5.5 point favorite. We don’t set the lines, Vegas does, we just look to capitalize on them.
Arizona is just a better team than UCLA. Jim Mora is a great coach, but he’s a pro coach. Rich Rodriguez may not even be a good coach, but he knows the college game better than Mora and probably better than almost any other coach in the country.
— UCLA Athletics (@UCLAAthletics) October 26, 2014
Rodriguez’s defense has become good based on Pac 12 standards. It gives up less than 500 yards and less than 30 points per game on average while UCLA’s gives up almost exactly 30 points per game. The Bruins are also 1 and 7 against the spread.
Arizona is the play on the money line, but such a terrible ATS record means that UCLA is having trouble separating from teams in the fourth quarter. That will give the Wildcats a shot for the victory.
Pick: Arizona Wildcats