My Week 4 NCAAF Three-Team Parlay PickJosh Bailey
Another crazy week in college football betting is behind us and here is a winning 3-team parlay pick, but before we get into that lets catch up on the state of affairs in NCAA football: Upsets. Weather delays. Heisman hopes found and dashed. Conference rivalries. Injuries. Underdogs covering big spreads.
My Week 4 NCAAF Three-Team Parlay Pick:
- Alabama -15.5 Points
- Virginia +13.5 Points
- Oregon -19.5 Points
Things will get started off in style Thursday night, as the No. 5 Auburn Tigers go head-to head against the No. 20 Kansas State Wildcats. This game will be an offense smorgsaboard so bet the over.
Moving on to the top team in the nation: the Florida State Seminoles who return to action after coming off an early season bye in Week 3. They are listed as 19.5-point home favorites against the No. 22 Clemson Tigers by our NCAAF oddsmakers. It has been a long eight years since Clemson recorded a road win against Florida State, who have won nine straight at home, at 7-2 against the spread, and 16 straight overall dating back to 2012.
ESPN Experts’ Heisman Poll: 1. Marcus Mariota 2. Todd Gurley 3. Jameis Winston 4. Kenny Hill 5. Everett Golson List: http://t.co/YTwepaQEiz
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) September 16, 2014
At home, Jameis Winston and the Seminoles are impossible to beat, but that was before their opener against Oklahoma State a few short weeks ago when they squeaked by in that one, winning 37-31.
Clemson dominated South Carolina State 73-7 as 34-point favorites in Week 2 to move to 12-2 SU in its last 14 games. However, going into Saturday’s Seminoles vs. Tigers matchup at Doak Campbell Stadium, Clemson has covered just once in its last four games as road underdogs.
My Week 4 NCAAF Three-Team Parlay Analysis
Matchup: Florida at No. 3 Alabama
When: September 20, 3:30 PM
Where: Grass of Bryant-Denny Stadium
Florida (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) may be off to a spotless 2-0 start, but the Gators had a fight on their hands in narrowly beating Kentucky 36-30 in triple overtime in Week 3 and never came close to covering the spread as a huge 17.5-point home favorite to fall to 1-1 ATS on the young season.
"Our guys fought," Gators head coach Will Muschamp told reporters following the win. "It wasn’t always pretty at times."
Alabama (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) didn’t look overwhelmingly impressive to me on Saturday, but the Crimson Tide were just that as they rolled roughshod all over overmatched Southern Mississippi in its convincing 52-12 Week 3 rout, though they also failed to cover the college football betting line as an insane 47-point home fave.
The Florida Gators are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the month of September, but the Gatos are also just 10-22-1 ATS in its last 33 games against teams with a winning record and a discouraging 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall.
Alabama has gone 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games and a surprising 0-4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
Still, with the Crimson Tide going 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games, I like Nick Saban’s team to get another emphatic win and this time – the ATS cover as well.
My Pick: Alabama -15.5 Points
Matchup: Virginia at No. 21 BYU
Spread: BYU -13.5
When: September 20, 3:30 PM
Where: Grass of LaVell Edwards Stadium
The Virginia Cavaliers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) are one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season so far and enter their Week 4 matchup feeling pretty good about themselves after picking up an absolutely thrilling 23-21 result against Louisville in its Week 3 matchup to cover the college football betting line as a 4-point home underdog.
Unfortunately, Virginia will take on an even more surprising team when they visit the impressive BYU Cougars (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) in a Week 4 matchup that looks a whole lot more appealing than it did before this season started.
BYU won its third game of the season by laying a convincing 33-25 smackdown on Houston this past weekend, though the Cougars failed to cover the spread as a 17-point home favorite to lose it first game against-the-spread.
With BYU averaging 7.0 points per game more than Virginia while also allowing 6.3 fewer points per game defensively, I think the Cougars are the easy pick to win and cover the college football betting odds in this matchup.
I also like the fact that BYU has played two solid opponents in Texas and Houston after opening up with a cakewalk win over UConn. Virginia was man-handled in its 28-20 season-opening loss against UCLA and hasn’t impressed me nearly as much as BYU has so far this season.
Virginia is 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-0 ATS in their L/4 games against a team with a winning record, but the Cavaliers are also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and a discouraging 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an SU win.
BYU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in the month of September, but the Cougars are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team that hails from the ACC,
I like BYU’s elusive junior quarterback Taysom Hill (six rushing TD’s, four passing scores) to lead the Cougars to victory, but I’m thinking the ATS cover goes t Virginia.
My Pick: Virginia +13.5 Points
Matchup: No. 2 Oregon -19.5 at Washington State
Spread: Ducks -19.5
When: September 20, 10:30 PM
Where: Turf of Martin Stadium
The Oregon Ducks (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) are already up their high-scoring ways and will look to top the 40-point plateau for the fourth time this season when they visit the Washington State Cougars (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) in this Pac-12 matchup on Saturday.
Oregon rolled all over Wyoming 48-14 in its Week 3 mismatch though the Ducks failed to cover the college football betting line as a insane 42-point home favorite to fall to 1-2 ATS on the season.
The Ducks got a fantastic performance from Heisman Trophy candidate Marcus Mariota as the junior signal-caller completed 19 of 23 passes for 221 yards with two scores while adding 71 rushing yards and two more scores on just five carries.
Washington State snapped is two-game SU and ATS skids by pounding the snot out of tiny Portland State 59-21 on Saturday to cover the spread as a 23-point home favorite.
Oregon has won seven straight games against Washington State, though the Cougars have covered the spread in each of the last four meetings. Of course, Washington State was an underdog of at least 30.5 points in each contest.
Oregon however, won each of the last four meetings by at least 15 points which is why I like the Ducks to win and cover the spread in this Week 4 meeting.
Sure, the Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against their conference rivals, but Oregon is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games and a blistering 14-5 ATS in its L/19 games following an SU win.
While Washington State has gone 4-1 ATS in its L/5 conference games, the Cougars are also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following an SU win of more than 20 points.
With the Ducks averaging 14.3 points per game more than Washington State and allowing 10.7 fewer points per game defensively, the Ducks are the easy pick in this Pac-12 matchup.
My Pick: Oregon -19.5 Points
So there is my week 4 college football 3-team parlay pick. Happy betting sports fans.