Welcome to Urban’s world. During his tenure (3+ years) as head-coach at Ohio State, his Buckeyes have gone an unbelievable 40-3 straight up and 25-18 against the college football betting spread. This week, the top-ranked Buckeyes are favored by a ridiculous 34.5 points over the unknown Northern Illinois Huskies. Supporters of the Huskies should be comforted knowing that OSU is a measly 3-5 ATS when the spread eclipses 30-points.
Analyzing My Northern Illinois Huskies at Ohio State Buckeyes College Football Week 3 Against The Spread Pick
What: Northern Illinois Huskies (2-0) at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0)
When: Saturday, Sept 19th, 2015
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Columbus, OH
Stadium: Ohio Stadium
Weather: 77 °F/Light Rain
Wind: North 11mph
Spread: Ohio State -34.5
Moneyline: Northern Illinois +8500 vs Ohio State -23000
Game Total: 66.5
Watch: ABC/ESPN 2
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Northern Illinois Vs Ohio State
Northern Illinois (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) struggled in the first half, but put the pedal to the metal in the second half to stretch their first half lead and rout Murray State 57-26 on Saturday to cash in as huge 29.5-point home favorites.
Quarterback Drew Hare completed 29 of 38 passes for 358 yards with four touchdown passes while hooking up with wide receiver Kenny Golladay eight times for 144 yards and two scores. Running back Joel Bouagnon added two additional rushing scores in the win.
Huskies head coach Rod Carey spoke on his team’s struggles to run the ball effectively, especially early on.
"Well they had like nine dudes up there, so it’s tough to run against nine when you only have seven to block,” Carey said. “If they’re going to sell out to stop the run like that, you’re going to be able to throw it."
Ohio State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) didn’t play well, but the defending national champs still rolled to an emphatic 38-0 win over Hawaii though they failed to cover the spread as a whopping 41-point home favorites.
The Buckeyes got 101 rushing yards and three touchdowns from gifted running back Ezekiel Elliott but head coach Urban Meyer was not pleased after the win.
"We did not execute well," Meyer said.
Cardale Jones got the start at quarterback for the second straight game and went 6 of 9 for 82 yards in the first half, though he finished with a modest 100 passing yards on the day.
Jones fumbled twice in the win but managed to recapture each. Ohio State’s offensive line was called for three penalties and the Buckeyes missed a 46-yard field goal attempt when holder Cameron Johnston mishandled the snap.
"It wasn’t a performance that I wanted," Jones said.
Backup quarterback J.T. Barrett completed 8 of 15 passes for 70 yards and added seven rushing yards on one carry.
Meyer admitted to reporters that he is still struggling with how to best utilize his two talented quarterbacks.
"I’m evaluating how we’re doing that and what’s the best opportunity to go down the field and score," he said.
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) September 9, 2015
Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:
- Northern Illinois Huskies 6-8 All Games since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 11-6 All Games since last season
- Northern Illinois Huskies 6-3 On Road since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 4-4 At Home since last season
- Northern Illinois Huskies 2-2 As Underdog or PK since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 7-6 As Favorite since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 1-1 When Line was 64.5 to 68.5 since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 7-1 O-U At Home since last season
- Northern Illinois Huskies 4-2 O-U When Line is >60 since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 4-2 O-U When Line is >60 since last season
- Northern Illinois Huskies 2-0 O-U When Line was 64.5 to 68.5 since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 2-1 O-U When Line was 64.5 to 68.5 since last season
- Ohio State Buckeyes 7-1 O-U vs Teams Averaging 25 to 32 PPG since last season
Betting Analysis: 65 percent of the betting public likes Ohio State to cover the huge point spread as nearly five-touchdown home favorites, but I don’t.
Not only has Northern Illinois won nine of its last 10 games, but the Huskies have also compiled a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in their last four games against Big Ten ballclubs while also going 4-2 ATS in its last half-dozen games and an even more impressive 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
I know the Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the MAC, but Northern Illinois is probably better than Hawaii and I’m expecting them to give Ohio State a much tougher way to go than the Warriors did in last weekend’s 38-point loss.
64 percent of the betting public is backing the Buckeyes while 62.5 percent of the action is on the over.
I am picking the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover the 34.5-point spread as underdogs as the smart bet and Over-66.5. My final score prediction is Northern Illinois 21, Ohio State 52.