AT&T Cotton Bowl Oklahoma State vs Missouri Betting Trends

Oklahoma State and Baylor Enter Fist Fight For Big 12 Championship

Two games this weekend will decide who wins the Big 12 Championship, and that seems like a fitting end to what’s been an exhilarating college football season so far. A berth in the Cotton Bowl is on the line for whomever emerges from Saturday as the conference champion. If you’re a big confused, let me guide you through this.

The breakdown is very simple. Oklahoma State owns the tie breakers over both Texas and Baylor this season, and can win sole claim of the Big 12 Championship by beating Oklahoma in the aptly named Bedlam Game. If they lose, Baylor has a chance to win the outright Big 12 Championship by beating Texas. Of course, if Oklahoma State and Baylor both lose, then it would be a three-way tie for the Big 12 Championship with Texas representing the conference in the Cotton Bowl.

Basically, everything rests in Oklahoma State’s very capable hands. But this is college football and if we’re sure about one thing, it’s to never be sure of anything. Let’s take a look at the games.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 9.5 points favorites over the Oklahoma Sooners.
Starts: 12/07/2013 12:00PM
Boone Pickens Stadium at Lewis Field, 422 Aquires
Stillwater, Oklahoma

#18 Oklahoma Sooners +10.5 over #7 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Typically this has been a game dominated by the Sooners, who are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the head-to-head series, but the Cowboys have covered the last two meetings. Oklahoma has been on a tear going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games. The major problem in this specific game is that they’re travelling. The Sooners are just 2-2 SU and ATS on the road, and have lost road trips to Texas and Baylor while barely edging out Kansas Sate last weekend.

Nothing, however, has compared to Oklahoma State in recent weeks. They are an unbelievable 6-0 SU and ATS over their last 6 games and have scored a mind numbing 49.3 points on offence while giving up just 22.7 points against on average. That defense also completely silenced Baylor in a 49-17 win two weeks ago. Honestly, they don’t just look like the best team in the conference – they are playing like one of the best in the whole country.

So why back Oklahoma here? They have dropped an average of 44.5 points in their last two outings and are playing at full tilt. Historically, they always give Oklahoma State a run for their money and the pick here has more to do with the spread than anything else. It’s simply too big. Oklahoma can’t win a share of the Big 12 Championship due to tie breakers, but they can certainly spoil the party for Oklahoma State just like they did last season. An upset victory is within reach here for the Sooners, so I love that point cushion for the road dogs.

Bonus NCAAF Championship Week Betting Picks

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Fri, Dec 6, 2013
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
NIU -3
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Utah State
Fresno State
UTST +3
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Michigan State
Ohio State
MSU +5
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Duke
Florida State
FSU -29
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Auburn
Missouri
MIZZ +2
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Stanford
Arizona State
ASU -3.5

Baylord Bears vs Texas Longhorns

The Baylord Bears are 14 point favorites over the Texas Longhorns.
Starts: 12/07/2013 3:30PM
Floyd Casey Stadium, 3088 Burnett Avenue
Waco, Texas

 

#9 Baylor Bears -13.5 over Texas Longhorns

The road has been similarly unfriendly to Baylor over the past two weeks. They were muzzled by Oklahoma State two weeks ago and then followed that up with a nail biting 41-38 victory at TCU as -14.0 road favorites. The good thing is that their offence was revitalized against the Horned Frogs, but it’s evident that their defense presents a glaring problem.

Baylor is just 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against Texas, but they’re also 5-1 ATS in those games. And the 2013 Baylor Bears is hands down the best football team this school has ever had. It should help calm the public that Baylor is also a much better play at home where they’re 7-0 SU this year and 21-6 ATS in the last four seasons. Baylor also plays very well at the end of the year, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games in the month of December.

It’s bonkers that Texas is a position to win a share of the Big 12 title and represent the conference in the Cotton Bowl, but they’ve flat out earned it. This team rallies around Mack Brown very well but my fear for them is that their passing defense will be victimized yet again by one of the country’s most prominent scoring machines. The Longhorns have allowed just 22.3 points per game in their last 6, but gave up 38 against Oklahoma State and a whopping 40 against West Virginia. Case McCoy and the offense are plenty of fun to watch, as you’d expect, but the defense simply doesn’t perform well against high octane passing teams.

People were quick to murder Baylor for their loss to the Cowboys, but after riding their coattails to a mountain of money this year, I’m still not ready to give up on them. At home, Baylor is a lockdown play. They’ll need some luck to bring home the Big 12 Championship, but they can absolutely do their part by clobbering Texas as major home favorites.