Can history repeat itself? I was surprised that Ole Miss upset Bama 23-17 in University, MS last season. This year the game shifts to Tuscaloosa. Can the Rebels upset the Tide two years in a row?
The Las Vegas CFB odds-makers are on the fence. The 2nd-ranked Tide are a slim 6-point spread betting favorite over the 15th-ranked Rebels. It’s going to an uphill climb to beat Bama two seasons in row.
But Ole Miss could do it. Heading into the season, the Rebels were expected to be one of the top defenses in the nation but there were doubts on offense. After lighting up their first two opponents for 70+ points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history, I am sold.
From the desk of ESPN Stats & Information, Ole Miss would be the first team since Notre Dame in 1973 and ’74 to defeat top-three Alabama teams in consecutive seasons.
Betting Trends That Influenced My Opinion:
- Ole Miss Rebels 9-4 All Games since last season
- Alabama Crimson Tide 6-9 All Games since last season
- Ole Miss Rebels 3-3 On Road since last season
- Alabama Crimson Tide 3-4 At Home since last season
- Ole Miss Rebels 3-1 As Underdog or PK since last season
- Alabama Crimson Tide 6-9 As Favorite since last season
- Ole Miss Rebels 1-0 When Line was 49.5 to 53.5 since last season
- Alabama Crimson Tide 2-2 When Line was 49.5 to 53.5 since last season
- Ole Miss Rebels 0-6 O-U On Road since last season
- Alabama Crimson Tide 3-4 O-U At Home since last season
- Ole Miss Rebels 3-4 O-U When Line is 50 to 60 since last season
- Ole Miss Rebels 1-3 O-U When Line was 49.5 to 53.5 since last season
- Ole Miss Rebels 1-5 O-U vs Teams Averaging >32 PPG since last season
- Alabama Crimson Tide 1-2 O-U vs Teams Averaging 25 to 32 PPG since last season
A Comprehensive Analysis Of The #15 Mississippi Rebels Vs #2 Alabama Crimson Tide Spread, ATS Pick & How To Watch
What: No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels (2-0) at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)
When: Saturday, Sept 19th, 2015
Kickoff: 9:15 p.m. ET
Where: Tuscaloosa, AL
Stadium: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Weather: 89°F/ Scattered Clouds
Wind: East 6mph
Spread: Alabama -6
Moneyline: Ole Miss +190 vs Alabama -230
Game Total: 51.5
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Ole Miss Vs Alabama
Why Bet On No. 15 Ole Miss to Beat No. 2 Alabama
Can the Rebel’s offense keep the good times rolling?
How good is Ole Miss’ offense? It’s good enough to have scored over 70 points in 2 straight games. That’s Oregon-like. Ole Miss absolutely pummeled Tennessee-Martin 76 to 3 in Week 1. Tennessee-Martin is an I-AA school, but scoring 70 points, and holding your opponent to 3 is still impressive.
Ole Miss now No. 1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) Rebels now have the best chance to win the SEC (33%)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 13, 2015
Ole Miss racked up 662 total yards versus Tennessee-Martin. The Rebels gained 338 yards on the ground from only 36 carries. The average ended up as 9.4 yards per carry. To prove that they’re balanced on offense, Ole Miss quarterbacks threw for 324 yards against Tennessee-Martin. In Week 2 versus Fresno State, Ole Miss obliterated the Bulldogs’ defense.
QB Chad Kelly was particularly awe-inspiring. He completed 20 out of 25 passes for 346 yards. He threw 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Ole Miss running backs jaunted for 215 yards on 35 carries. They averaged 6.5 yards a carry versus Fresno State.
If the Rebels have the offense going versus Alabama, things could get dicey again for the Crimson Tide just like it did last season. Ole Miss might be able to not only cover the spread but beat Alabama straight up again if the offense is motoring.
Why Bet On No. 2 Alabama to Beat No. 15 Ole Miss
The Bama D gets a chance a redemption.
The Crimson Tide defense has been waiting a long time for another crack at Ole Miss’s offense. The Rebels upset the Tide 23 to 17 last season. Alabama was a huge -11.5 point road favorite in that game. The Tide allowed Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace to throw for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Wallace has gone on to graduate. Alabama cannot let Chad Kelly get it going on Saturday. The Tide’s chances of containing Kelly are good. Even though Alabama’s secondary is a work in progress, the defensive line and linebackers are so talented that the Crimson Tide should be able to get to Kelly before he can get off a long throw.
— ESPN Insider (@ESPNInsider) September 16, 2015
The defense revolves around devastating senior linebacker Reggie Ragland who some are saying will be the first linebacker taken in the 2016 NFL draft. Ragland leads a defense that’s allowing 63 rushing yards and 208.5 passing yards per game. Alabama allows only 13.5 points per matchup.
The Alabama defense has the upper hand over the Ole Miss offense in this game. But, expecting the Crimson Tide to cover a 10 point spread while having a quarterback controversy on offense is asking too much. The Tide will exact their revenge with a win, but they won’t cover the spread. I am picking the Crimson Tide and the Under-51.5 as the smart bet. My final score prediction is Alabama 21, Ole Miss 17.