College football games are always high-scoring, but oddsmakers adjust their game total odds to factor that in. I have a trio of Over-Under game total picks for week 5 of college football action.
Over-Under Picks College Football Week 5
Tennessee at Georgia
When: Saturday, Sep. 29
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Stream: CBS Sports
Game Total: 52
Analysis: Tennessee averages close to 30 points per game mainly because they scored 59 against East Tennessee State. The Vols have a terrible offense that only scored 14 against West Virginia, 24 against UTEP, and 21 against Florida.
Trends for both Tennessee and Georgia point to this game going over, though. The over is 5-1 in the Vols last 6 conference games. The over is 5-1 in the Bulldogs last 6 conference games. There is one trend that points to this game going under: the under is 8-2 in Georgia’s last 10 games in September.
Tennessee shouldn’t score more than 3 to 7 points in this game. Georgia could get the over by themselves, but more than likely Kirby Smart calls off the Dawgs’ starters before the fourth quarter. Although the trends say otherwise, I’ll go under.
Michigan at Northwestern
When: Saturday, Sep. 29 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Game Total: N/A
Analysis: Michigan’s defense ranks third in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed. Opponents average 14.2 points per game versus the Wolverines’ defense. Nebraska could only score 10 in Michigan’s 56-10 win on Sep. 22. Just based on Michigan’s D, this should go under.
Northwestern’s defense gives up 29 points per game, though. Akron scored 39 in a 34-39 Northwestern loss on Sep. 15. The Over is 6-0-1 in Northwestern’s last 7 games following an ATS loss. The Over is 6-2 in Michigan’s last 8 conference games.
While there is no current game total, Michigan should score points at will while Northwestern figures to score at least 24 in this.
South Carolina at Kentucky
When: Saturday, Sep. 29 at 7:30 pm ET
Where: Kroger Field, Lexingon, KY
TV: SEC ESPN Net
Game Total: 50.5
Analysis: Undefeated Kentucky hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game yet this season. The Wildcats held Mississippi State to 7 points in a 28-7 win on Sep. 22.
Kentucky should dominate South Carolina’s offense, which although averaging over 34 points, scored only 17 against Georgia’s defense. Kentucky should control the flow of this game from the outset, meaning there’s a great chance this goes under the total.