Rose Bowl Betting Free Pick - #5 Stanford vs. #4 Michigan State

PAC-12 Championship Game Comes Down To Stanford and ASU

Most people had Stanford pegged as one of the Pac-12 Championship game betting finalists, but nobody saw the Arizona State Sun Devils coming. At the beginning of the year, the Cardinal were the fourth ranked team in the country while the Sun Devils were left off the standings altogether. Sure, they received a few votes, but they were a distant afterthought in a conference that should have been dominated by both Oregon and Stanford.

And yet here we are. The Sun Devils have had a two-faced season. They started the year slow, and in their third game of the season they were mauled by these very Cardinal in a 28-42 beatdown on the road. Two weeks later they were bested by Notre Dame in a 34-37 road loss. Since then, they’ve gone a blistering 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS while scoring 44.0 points. Part of the reason they’re favored in Pac-12 Championship game betting is because of their defense, which has allowed just 21.1 points against over those seven games as well.

Stanford (10-2) vs. Arizona State (10-2)
Arizona State is a 3 point favorites over Stanford for the PAC-12 Championship game.
Starts: 12/07/2013 7:40PM
Sun Devil Stadium, 500 East Veterans Way
Tempe, Arizona


Arizona State’s sudden turnaround this season has driven them up the standings in monumental fashion, and their 3-2-1 ATS record when playing Stanford shouldn’t be ignored. The Sun Devils are also 4-1 ATS when playing at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Pac-12 matchups. A lot of the trends, and the PAC-12 Championship game betting line itself, are leaning towards ASU. The natural home line on any game is -3.0 so the fact that the line shaded up to ASU -3.5 should tell indicate that the Sun Devils aren’t to be ignored.

Even at 6-6 ATS on the season, gamblers who dig in to more specific metrics love Stanford depending on the matchup. The Cardinal are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, and are 10-3-1 ATS in away games against teams with winning records. They’re also known as a late charging team. Stanford is 4-0 ATS when playing in December, while ASU is a dismal 2-6 ATS in their last 8 late season games.

Bonus College Football Betting Picks

Fri, Dec 6, 2013
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
NIU -3
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Michigan State
Ohio State
MSU +5
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Utah State
Fresno State
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Florida State
FSU -29
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
BAY -13.5
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Oklahoma State
OKLA +10.5

What ultimately bothers me about Stanford is two fold: I don’t like that they’re playing on the road against a red-hot Sun Devils team, and Keith Hogan’s production overall worries me. Hogan has thrown two bad games in his last three outings, with 127 passing yards against USC in a loss and just 158 yards against Notre Dame in a narrow win last weekend. He has four picks in those two games as well, and the Sun Devils have been very creative and opportunistic in the turnover department.

Stanford has also had trouble traveling this year. Their only losses this season have come against Utah and USC, which present two very difficult venues to visit. Arizona State has an undeniable home field advantage, and in a game where defense will be the headlining story, I envision the Sun Devils coming out on top. Stanford’s defense is the real deal, but I have my problems with their quarterback and ASU is about to prove that they’re a legitimate BCS team. This is all about momentum for me, and the home bound Sun Devils have too many advantages in this game to ignore them as the take in Pac-12 Championship Game betting. The Sun Devils haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and that’s a drought I expect in the fiery heat of the desert.

PAC-12 Championship Game Betting Pick – ASU -3.5