Welcome to the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. The home team, San Diego State Aztecs are 2 point favorites when they face the Midshipmen of Navy.
The Poinsettia Bowl kicks off at 6pm ET the night before Christmas Eve, marks the fourth time the Aztecs and Midshipmen have met, including the second time in this particular bowl game. In the previous three meetings, San Diego State has dominated, winning by an average score of 45-20.
— Poinsettia Bowl (@PoinsettiaBowl) December 7, 2014
Analyzing The Poinsettia Bowl Against The Spread Odds
San Diego State Aztecs vs Navy Midshipmen
Date: Dec. 23, 2014
Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
Location: San Diego, California
Stadium: Qualcomm Stadium
TV Info: ESPN
Stream Info: WatchESPN.com
Radio: San Diego State Vs Navy
Point Spread: Aztecs -2
Game Total: 56.5
Navy Will Win the Poinsettia Bowl If
The can put at least 31 points on the board!
Outside of their 17-10 regular season-ending win over Army last weekend, Navy scored at least 31 points in each of their other six victories this season and I believe they will have to reach that figure again if they want to beat a solid San Diego State team.
— Poinsettia Bowl (@PoinsettiaBowl) December 14, 2014
The Midshipmen averaged a fine, 33.1 points per game this season (40th) thanks to their powerful rushing attack which ranked second in the nation (345.1 ypg). Navy could very well be tested against an Aztecs defense that gave up just 146.7 rushing yards per game (43rd).
San Diego State Will Win the Poinsettia Bowl If
They can reach the 30-point plateau!
The Aztecs often struggled offensively this season as they ranked just 106th in passing (181.5 ypg) and 86th in scoring (25.8 ppg). San Diego State was held to 14 points or less in three of their five losses this season while getting held to less than 30 points in their two other regular season losses.
The good news is that the Aztecs have one of the best running backs in the country on their roster in speedy sophomore Donnel Pumphrey (1,755 yds, 17 TDs) and have scored at least 30 points in winning three of their final four games coming into this one.
Who Will Win the Poinsettia Bowl?
San Diego State has won the only two meetings between these schools, including the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, which they won 35-14 to easily cash in as 3-point home favorites.
While I’m not sensing that this season’s bowl game battle is going to be anything close to a blowout for either team, I do like the Aztecs to win and narrowly cover the spread in a contest that has the look and feel of a classic field goal game.
One of the biggest telltale signs of the measure of each team is their matchups against two common opponents this season.
Navy beat San Jose State by 10 points 41-31 in October while San Diego State routed their in-state rivals 38-7 to close out their regular season.
The Aztecs also rolled all over Air Force in their commanding 30-14 win on Nov. 21 while Navy fell to the Falcons 30-21 as a 3-point road favorite on Oct. 4.
The Poinsettia Bowl Against The Spread Pick: San Diego State -2 Points