The Baylor Bears came out swinging earlier this year, and through eight games this season they’ve continued to deliver hay makers to their opponents, the Big 12 and the college football betting line. A suicidal gauntlet run to bust in to the BCS that started with a 41-12 win over Oklahoma last weekend, and continues with the Texas Tech Red Raiders this weekend. The spread on this matchup is a monster, but as they’ve done all season, Baylor loves to hit the gas pedal and keep their foot on the floor for four quarters.
Even Texas Tech, a school that has a reputation for airing it out with the best of them, might not be able to keep up.
The Red Raiders have been free falling down the rankings over the past three weeks because of three consecutive defeats, which also happened to cover the college football betting line. Texas Tech is now just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. During that run they’ve allowed 40.2 points against per game. And their offense has fallen flat over that stretch simultaneously.
The head-to-head history in this matchup has provided a bunch of barn burners but Baylor owns the advantage there as well. Texas Tech is 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings with Baylor, but the Bears have gone 4-1 ATS in 5 most recent meetings. On top of that, Baylor has won the last two games by combined scored of 118-87. I wouldn’t expect the Red Raiders to post those types of numbers this coming weekend, especially since Baylor’s defense is coming to the party every week.
The college football betting squares haven’t been totally endeared with Baylor because of their schedule up to this point. That’s fair since their first seven games included zero ranked opponents. But after their 41-12 demolition of Oklahoma last weekend, you have to take them seriously. The Bears have failed to cover just once this season, against Kansas State with a 35-25 win against a -17.0 handicap and that was weeks ago.
However, there is a catch with Baylor and that’s the “looking too far ahead” factor. The Bears have two tough roadies against Oklahoma State and TCU before finishing the season on the road against Texas. This is likely to be the easiest of their four final games, and the Bears could get caught making the mistake of overlooking their opponents this weekend. The win will be the easy part. Covering a spread that’s almost four touchdowns is going to be a lot to ask for.
But the big reason I’m not flinching on Baylor in college football betting is for the simple reason that people are overlooking their defense. The Bears have allowed the 6th fewest points against with just 15.4 points allowed this season while leading the country with 61.0 points score per game. Prior to the game against Oklahoma, people scoffed at that defensive average because it was built against bad teams. After watching them contain Oklahoma to just 12 points, I think it’s time we took the Bears defense much more seriously.
They may not be as complete as Alabama or FSU, but considering that we’re talking about Baylor here, it’s staggering how well the coaching staff has done in a competitive state like Texas in the heat of the Big 12 where recruiting for the smaller, lesser knowns must be a nightmare. Baylor is not just an offensive juggernaut, they’re a defensive force, and they’ll remind the college football betting universe of this very fact on Saturday.
College Football Betting Free Pick – Baylor -27.0