SEC Championship Game Free Pick – Auburn (11-1) vs. Missouri (11-1)

Auburn's 2014 College Football Futures Betting Odds

SEC Championship Game Free Pick – Auburn (11-1) vs. Missouri (11-1)

Well we certainly didn’t forecast this as the SEC Championship game matchup when the season started. The Auburn Tigers shocked the world during one of the most exciting college football games of all time, beating top ranked Alabama with a stunning kick return off a missed field goal with one second left on the clock. Somehow, beating the best team in the country didn’t vault them in to the BCS National Title game. A big win over fifth ranked Missouri just might.

I wrote last weekend that Auburn seemed like a team of destiny. They beat Georgia two weeks ago on a tipped pass touchdown in the final minute, and then banked a victory on another outright miracle against Alabama. While it’s fun to believe that this team’s fortunes are aplenty, suspicious gamblers might also be fretting that their luck is running out. As slim favorites in SEC Championship game betting, it’s very hard to stomach Auburn dialing up another prayer to win another big game.

Auburn (11-1) vs. Missouri (11-1)
The Auburn Tigers are 2 point favorites over the Missouri Tigers for the SEC Championship game.
Starts: 12/07/2013 4:00PM
Georgia Dome, One Georgia Dome Dr.
Atlanta, Georgia

 

Making matters even more difficult is a Missouri defense that spent all of Saturday bottling up Johnny Manziel. The defending Heisman winner had just 195 passing yards and 21 yards rushing (on 11 attempts) and was held to just a lone touchdown pass as his Aggies fell 21-28 against a Missouri team that is now 4-0 SU and ATS. As usual, Missouri won another game by offering superb balance on both sides of the football. They cranked up 463 yards of offence while leaning on a defense that could very well be one of the best overall in the country.

Playing in the offensively loaded SEC has its downfalls, and defensive metrics is one of them. But the Missouri Tigers have allowed just 19.4 points against per game and are now ranked 14th in rush defense with just 119.1 yards against. I pointed out Manziel’s problems last weekend because it’s impossible to leverage an SEC Championship betting pick without analyzing the impact that Auburn’s quarterback will have. Nick Marshall is for all intents and purposes a less flashy version of Johnny Football.

Bonus College Football Betting Picks

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Fri, Dec 6, 2013
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
NIU -3
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Stanford
Arizona State
ASU -3.5
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Michigan State
Ohio State
MSU +5
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Utah State
Fresno State
UTST -3
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Duke
Florida State
FSU -29
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Texas
Baylor
BAY -13.5
Sat, Dec 7, 2013
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
OKLA +10.5

That being said, Marshall is a hyper efficient beast. He completed just 11-of-16 pass attempts against Alabama and picked up just 97 yards, but found the endzone twice through the air. He also picked up 99 rushing yards and a touchdown, while opening up lanes for his backfield running mate Tre Mason, who managed 164 yards and a score of his own. Combined, they are a terrifying matchup for any defense, including Missouri’s.

However, Auburn’s suspect defense is a big problem in this one. Missouri can hurt you in a number of ways offensively and the Tigers are allowing 33.2 points against over their last 6 games. The Missouri defense has handled dynamic quarterbacks like Bo Wallace and Manziel in recent weeks and I expect that same group of stoppers to come to the rescue yet again. I’m not sure if a win for Missouri will be enough to grant them a BCS Championship berth, but they are as deserving of consideration as any other team at the top of the rankings. And they’ll prove it by locking down Marshall and willowing down the Tigers in what promises to be an exciting SEC Championship game betting thrill ride.

SEC Championship Game Betting Pick – Missouri +2.0